Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense Statistics & Analysis

Marcílio Dias

Oct 16, 2026 - 22:30

2 1.31

2 1.29

xG Accuracy: 68%

Figueirense

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Marcílio Dias Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 10, 2026 · 03:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-14564644

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Marcílio Dias 2–2 Figueirense

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Copa Santa Catarina
Fixture: Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense
Kickoff: 2026-10-16 22:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Marcílio Dias 1.31 — Figueirense 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.3% · Probability edge: +3.9 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Marcílio Dias & Figueirense!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics