Statistics / Football / Qatar. Stars League / Al-Gharafa vs Al Shamal

Al-Gharafa vs Al Shamal Statistics & Analysis

Al-Gharafa Al-Gharafa
Aug 27, 2026 - 14:15
1 1.31
3 1.29
xG Accuracy: 57%
Al Shamal Al Shamal
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Al-Gharafa Al Shamal ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 21, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4776018

Closing Odds 2.38
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Al Shamal win · Al-Gharafa 1–3 Al Shamal
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.26 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Al-Gharafa (1X2) 35.6 35.1 +0.5
Draw (1X2) 29.7 25.0 +4.7
Al Shamal (1X2) 34.7 40.0 -5.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 59.1 -10.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 40.9 +10.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.9%. The difference — about 10.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Al-Gharafa (1X2) 2.71 2.71 -0.1
Draw (1X2) 3.87 3.81 +0.3
Al Shamal (1X2) 2.37 2.38 -0.3
Over 2.5 goals 1.58 1.61 -1.3
Under 2.5 goals 2.41 2.33 +1.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Stars League
  • Fixture: Al-Gharafa vs Al Shamal
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-27 14:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Al-Gharafa 1.31 — Al Shamal 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.8% · Probability edge: +11.0 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Stars League Stars League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Sadd 3 3 0 0 9
2 Al Shamal 3 2 1 0 7
3 Al-Rayyan SC 3 2 1 0 7
4 Al-Arabi SC 3 1 2 0 5
5 Al-Duhail SC 3 1 2 0 5
6 Lusail City 3 1 1 1 4
7 Al Ahli Doha 3 1 1 1 4
8 Al Shahaniya 3 1 0 2 3
9 Al-Gharafa 3 1 0 2 3
10 Qatar SC 3 0 1 2 1
11 Al Wakrah 3 0 1 2 1
12 Al-Sailiya 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Sadd 3 13 4 +9 9
2 Al Shamal 3 9 5 +4 7
3 Lusail City 3 7 4 +3 4
4 Al Shahaniya 3 6 8 -2 3
5 Al-Arabi SC 3 5 3 +2 5
6 Al Ahli Doha 3 5 6 -1 4
7 Al-Rayyan SC 3 4 2 +2 7
8 Al-Duhail SC 3 4 2 +2 5
9 Al-Gharafa 3 4 8 -4 3
10 Qatar SC 3 4 9 -5 1
11 Al Wakrah 3 3 8 -5 1
12 Al-Sailiya 3 2 7 -5 0