Al Wakrah vs Qatar SC Statistics & Analysis

Al Wakrah

Aug 20, 2026 - 14:15

2 1.37

2 1.23

xG Accuracy: 68%

Qatar SC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Al Wakrah Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 14, 2026 · 07:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3922359

Closing Odds 3.59

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Al Wakrah 2–2 Qatar SC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Al Wakrah (1X2)	38.5	40.1	-1.6
Draw (1X2)	29.6	26.6	+3.0
Qatar SC (1X2)	31.9	33.4	-1.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	57.5	-9.3
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	42.5	+9.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.5%. The difference — about 9.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Al Wakrah (1X2)	2.38	2.38
Draw (1X2)	3.59	3.59
Qatar SC (1X2)	2.86	2.86
Over 2.5 goals	1.66	1.66
Under 2.5 goals	2.25	2.25

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Stars League
Fixture: Al Wakrah vs Qatar SC
Kickoff: 2026-08-20 14:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
xG (showing): Al Wakrah 1.37 — Qatar SC 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.2% · Probability edge: +9.6 pts · Est. EV: +18.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Stars League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Al Sadd	4	4	0	0	12
2	Al-Rayyan SC	4	3	1	0	10
3	Al Shamal	4	2	2	0	8
4	Al-Arabi SC	4	1	3	0	6
5	Al-Duhail SC	4	1	3	0	6
6	Lusail City	4	1	2	1	5
7	Al Shahaniya	4	1	1	2	4
8	Al Ahli Doha	4	1	1	2	4
9	Al-Gharafa	4	1	1	2	4
10	Qatar SC	4	0	2	2	2
11	Al Wakrah	4	0	2	2	2
12	Al-Sailiya	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Al Sadd	4	19	7	+12	12
2	Al Shamal	4	10	6	+4	8
3	Al-Rayyan SC	4	7	2	+5	10
4	Lusail City	4	7	4	+3	5
5	Al Shahaniya	4	7	9	-2	4
6	Al-Arabi SC	4	5	3	+2	6
7	Al-Duhail SC	4	5	3	+2	6
8	Al Ahli Doha	4	5	9	-4	4
9	Al-Sailiya	4	5	13	-8	0
10	Al-Gharafa	4	4	8	-4	4
11	Qatar SC	4	4	9	-5	2
12	Al Wakrah	4	4	9	-5	2