Vitória de Sernache vs Louletano Statistics & Analysis

Vitória de Sernache

Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 64%

Louletano

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Vitória de Sernache Vitória de Sernache ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13232246

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Vitória de Sernache win · Vitória de Sernache 1–0 Louletano

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga 3
Fixture: Vitória de Sernache vs Louletano
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Vitória de Sernache 1.32 — Louletano 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 40.8% · Probability edge: +7.4 pts · Est. EV: +13.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 3 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Paredes	5	4	0	1	12
1	CF Os Belenenses	5	5	0	0	15
2	AD Marco 09	5	3	1	1	10
2	Atlético CP	5	3	1	1	10
3	Varzim	5	3	0	2	9
3	Oliveirense	5	2	2	1	8
4	Fafe	5	2	2	1	8
4	Mafra	5	2	1	2	7
5	Vianense	5	2	2	1	8
5	Louletano	5	2	1	2	7
6	Leça	5	2	1	2	7
6	Caldas	5	2	1	2	7
7	Guimaraes B	5	1	2	2	5
7	Lusitano Évora 1911	5	1	2	2	5
8	Trofense	5	1	1	3	4
8	SC Covilha	5	1	2	2	5
9	São João Ver	5	0	3	2	3
9	União Santarém	5	1	1	3	4
10	Pacos Ferreira	5	0	2	3	2
10	Vitória de Sernache	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	CF Os Belenenses	5	13	2	+11	15
2	Mafra	5	9	5	+4	7
3	Atlético CP	5	8	3	+5	10
4	Paredes	5	8	4	+4	12
5	Fafe	5	8	4	+4	8
6	Varzim	5	8	5	+3	9
7	Oliveirense	5	7	7	0	8
8	Louletano	5	7	7	0	7
9	Leça	5	7	8	-1	7
10	AD Marco 09	5	6	3	+3	10
11	Vianense	5	6	5	+1	8
12	Caldas	5	5	5	0	7
13	Pacos Ferreira	5	5	10	-5	2
14	Guimaraes B	5	4	5	-1	5
15	Lusitano Évora 1911	5	4	5	-1	5
16	SC Covilha	5	4	6	-2	5
17	São João Ver	5	3	6	-3	3
18	União Santarém	5	3	10	-7	4
19	Vitória de Sernache	5	3	13	-10	1
20	Trofense	5	2	7	-5	4