Statistics / Football / Portugal. Liga 3 / Trofense vs Leça

Trofense vs Leça Statistics & Analysis

Trofense Trofense
Sep 12, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.29
4 1.31
xG Accuracy: 44%
Leça Leça
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Leça Leça ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7459449

Closing Odds 2.56
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Leça win · Trofense 1–4 Leça
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Trofense (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Trofense (1X2) by about 1.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Trofense (1X2) 34.7 33.1 +1.6
Draw (1X2) 29.7 30.3 -0.6
Leça (1X2) 35.6 36.6 -1.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.7% on Trofense (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 33.1%. The difference — about 1.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: SBO

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Trofense (1X2) 2.56 2.56 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.8 2.8 0.0
Leça (1X2) 2.32 2.32 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga 3
  • Fixture: Trofense vs Leça
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Trofense 1.29 — Leça 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 42.8% · Probability edge: +5.4 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 3 Liga 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 AD Marco 09 5 3 1 1 10
1 CF Os Belenenses 4 4 0 0 12
2 Paredes 4 3 0 1 9
2 Atlético CP 4 3 1 0 10
3 Varzim 5 3 0 2 9
3 Oliveirense 5 2 2 1 8
4 Fafe 4 2 2 0 8
4 Mafra 5 2 1 2 7
5 Vianense 5 2 2 1 8
5 Louletano 5 2 1 2 7
6 Leça 5 2 1 2 7
6 Lusitano Évora 1911 5 1 2 2 5
7 Guimaraes B 5 1 2 2 5
7 SC Covilha 5 1 2 2 5
8 Trofense 5 1 1 3 4
8 Caldas 4 1 1 2 4
9 São João Ver 4 0 2 2 2
9 União Santarém 5 1 1 3 4
10 Pacos Ferreira 4 0 1 3 1
10 Vitória de Sernache 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CF Os Belenenses 4 12 2 +10 12
2 Mafra 5 9 5 +4 7
3 Atlético CP 4 8 2 +6 10
4 Varzim 5 8 5 +3 9
5 Fafe 4 7 2 +5 8
6 Oliveirense 5 7 7 0 8
7 Louletano 5 7 7 0 7
8 Leça 5 7 8 -1 7
9 AD Marco 09 5 6 3 +3 10
10 Paredes 4 6 3 +3 9
11 Vianense 5 6 5 +1 8
12 Lusitano Évora 1911 5 4 5 -1 5
13 Guimaraes B 5 4 5 -1 5
14 SC Covilha 5 4 6 -2 5
15 Pacos Ferreira 4 4 9 -5 1
16 Caldas 4 3 5 -2 4
17 União Santarém 5 3 10 -7 4
18 Vitória de Sernache 4 3 11 -8 1
19 São João Ver 4 2 5 -3 2
20 Trofense 5 2 7 -5 4