Statistics / Football / Portugal. Liga 3 / Caldas vs Lusitano Évora 1911

Caldas vs Lusitano Évora 1911 Statistics & Analysis

Caldas Caldas
Aug 16, 2026 - 16:30
0 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 49%
Lusitano Évora 1911 Lusitano Évora 1911
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Lusitano Évora 1911 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3612431

Closing Odds 2.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Caldas 0–0 Lusitano Évora 1911
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Lusitano Évora 1911 (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 10.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Caldas (1X2) 33.4 34.5 -1.1
Draw (1X2) 29.6 32.1 -2.5
Lusitano Évora 1911 (1X2) 37.0 33.4 +3.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 38.0 +10.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 62.0 -10.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 38.0%. The difference — about 10.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Caldas (1X2) 2.69 2.69 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.89 2.89 0.0
Lusitano Évora 1911 (1X2) 2.78 2.78 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.46 2.46 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.51 1.51 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga 3
  • Fixture: Caldas vs Lusitano Évora 1911
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Caldas 1.26 — Lusitano Évora 1911 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 39.0% · Probability edge: +9.2 pts · Est. EV: +18.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga 3 Liga 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Paredes 5 4 0 1 12
1 CF Os Belenenses 5 5 0 0 15
2 AD Marco 09 5 3 1 1 10
2 Atlético CP 5 3 1 1 10
3 Varzim 5 3 0 2 9
3 Oliveirense 5 2 2 1 8
4 Fafe 5 2 2 1 8
4 Mafra 5 2 1 2 7
5 Vianense 5 2 2 1 8
5 Louletano 5 2 1 2 7
6 Leça 5 2 1 2 7
6 Caldas 5 2 1 2 7
7 Guimaraes B 5 1 2 2 5
7 Lusitano Évora 1911 5 1 2 2 5
8 Trofense 5 1 1 3 4
8 SC Covilha 5 1 2 2 5
9 São João Ver 5 0 3 2 3
9 União Santarém 5 1 1 3 4
10 Pacos Ferreira 5 0 2 3 2
10 Vitória de Sernache 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CF Os Belenenses 5 13 2 +11 15
2 Mafra 5 9 5 +4 7
3 Atlético CP 5 8 3 +5 10
4 Paredes 5 8 4 +4 12
5 Fafe 5 8 4 +4 8
6 Varzim 5 8 5 +3 9
7 Oliveirense 5 7 7 0 8
8 Louletano 5 7 7 0 7
9 Leça 5 7 8 -1 7
10 AD Marco 09 5 6 3 +3 10
11 Vianense 5 6 5 +1 8
12 Caldas 5 5 5 0 7
13 Pacos Ferreira 5 5 10 -5 2
14 Guimaraes B 5 4 5 -1 5
15 Lusitano Évora 1911 5 4 5 -1 5
16 SC Covilha 5 4 6 -2 5
17 São João Ver 5 3 6 -3 3
18 União Santarém 5 3 10 -7 4
19 Vitória de Sernache 5 3 13 -10 1
20 Trofense 5 2 7 -5 4