Statistics / Football / Portugal. Liga 3 / Paredes vs Guimaraes B

Paredes vs Guimaraes B Statistics & Analysis

Paredes Paredes
Aug 07, 2026 - 19:00
3 1.34
1 1.26
xG Accuracy: 59%
Guimaraes B Guimaraes B
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Paredes Paredes ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 02:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2683498

Closing Odds 1.87
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Paredes win · Paredes 3–1 Guimaraes B
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Guimaraes B (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Guimaraes B (1X2) by about 12.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Paredes (1X2) 37.0 50.2 -13.2
Draw (1X2) 29.6 28.8 +0.8
Guimaraes B (1X2) 33.4 21.0 +12.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 42.3 +5.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 57.7 -5.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.4% on Guimaraes B (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.0%. The difference — about 12.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Paredes (1X2) 1.87 1.87 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.26 3.26 0.0
Guimaraes B (1X2) 4.47 4.47 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.25 2.25 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.65 1.65 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga 3
  • Fixture: Paredes vs Guimaraes B
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-07 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Paredes 1.34 — Guimaraes B 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 46.8% · Probability edge: +7.7 pts · Est. EV: +11.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga 3 Liga 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 AD Marco 09 5 3 1 1 10
1 CF Os Belenenses 4 4 0 0 12
2 Paredes 4 3 0 1 9
2 Atlético CP 4 3 1 0 10
3 Varzim 5 3 0 2 9
3 Oliveirense 5 2 2 1 8
4 Fafe 4 2 2 0 8
4 Mafra 5 2 1 2 7
5 Vianense 5 2 2 1 8
5 Louletano 5 2 1 2 7
6 Leça 5 2 1 2 7
6 Lusitano Évora 1911 5 1 2 2 5
7 Guimaraes B 5 1 2 2 5
7 SC Covilha 5 1 2 2 5
8 Trofense 5 1 1 3 4
8 Caldas 4 1 1 2 4
9 São João Ver 4 0 2 2 2
9 União Santarém 5 1 1 3 4
10 Pacos Ferreira 4 0 1 3 1
10 Vitória de Sernache 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CF Os Belenenses 4 12 2 +10 12
2 Mafra 5 9 5 +4 7
3 Atlético CP 4 8 2 +6 10
4 Varzim 5 8 5 +3 9
5 Fafe 4 7 2 +5 8
6 Oliveirense 5 7 7 0 8
7 Louletano 5 7 7 0 7
8 Leça 5 7 8 -1 7
9 AD Marco 09 5 6 3 +3 10
10 Paredes 4 6 3 +3 9
11 Vianense 5 6 5 +1 8
12 Lusitano Évora 1911 5 4 5 -1 5
13 Guimaraes B 5 4 5 -1 5
14 SC Covilha 5 4 6 -2 5
15 Pacos Ferreira 4 4 9 -5 1
16 Caldas 4 3 5 -2 4
17 União Santarém 5 3 10 -7 4
18 Vitória de Sernache 4 3 11 -8 1
19 São João Ver 4 2 5 -3 2
20 Trofense 5 2 7 -5 4