Statistics / Football / England. Non League Premier - Southern South / Yate Town vs Frome Town

Yate Town vs Frome Town Statistics & Analysis

Yate Town Yate Town
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.44
3 1.16
xG Accuracy: 39%
Frome Town Frome Town
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Yate Town Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11244567

Closing Odds 1.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Yate Town 3–3 Frome Town
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 4.98 percentage points on Frome Town (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE10.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Yate Town (1X2) by about 16.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Yate Town (1X2) 41.9 25.6 +16.2
Draw (1X2) 29.3 25.7 +3.6
Frome Town (1X2) 28.8 48.7 -19.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 54.2 -6.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 45.8 +6.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.9% on Yate Town (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.6%. The difference — about 16.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE10) Implied Δ (pp)
Yate Town (1X2) 3.02 3.57 -4.3
Draw (1X2) 3.43 3.56 -0.7
Frome Town (1X2) 2.07 1.88 +5.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.74 1.73 +0.6
Under 2.5 goals 2.01 2.05 -0.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Non League Premier - Southern South
  • Fixture: Yate Town vs Frome Town
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
  • xG (showing): Yate Town 1.44 — Frome Town 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.0% · Probability edge: +6.8 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Yate Town & Frome Town!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Non League Premier - Southern South Non League Premier - Southern South — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Plymouth Parkway 9 6 2 1 20
2 Uxbridge 9 6 2 1 20
3 Hanworth Villa 9 6 1 2 19
4 Poole Town 9 6 0 3 18
5 Bath City 9 5 2 2 17
6 Frome Town 10 4 3 3 15
7 Chertsey Town 9 4 2 3 14
8 Taunton Town 9 4 1 4 13
9 Chichester City 9 4 1 4 13
10 Evesham United 9 4 1 4 13
11 Berkhamsted 10 4 1 5 13
12 Wimborne Town 8 3 3 2 12
13 Gosport Borough 9 3 3 3 12
14 Yate Town 9 3 3 3 12
15 Bracknell Town 9 3 2 4 11
16 Sholing 8 3 1 4 10
17 Basingstoke Town 9 2 3 4 9
18 Hanwell Town 8 1 4 3 7
19 Gloucester City 9 1 4 4 7
20 Chippenham Town 8 2 1 5 7
21 Havant & Wville 9 1 2 6 5
22 Malvern Town 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Plymouth Parkway 9 23 8 +15 20
2 Taunton Town 9 23 22 +1 13
3 Chertsey Town 9 20 15 +5 14
4 Uxbridge 9 19 8 +11 20
5 Hanworth Villa 9 17 8 +9 19
6 Frome Town 10 17 13 +4 15
7 Poole Town 9 14 11 +3 18
8 Chichester City 9 14 16 -2 13
9 Basingstoke Town 9 14 16 -2 9
10 Evesham United 9 14 17 -3 13
11 Bath City 9 13 8 +5 17
12 Yate Town 9 13 18 -5 12
13 Malvern Town 9 13 25 -12 5
14 Gosport Borough 9 12 10 +2 12
15 Gloucester City 9 12 17 -5 7
16 Berkhamsted 10 11 14 -3 13
17 Bracknell Town 9 11 18 -7 11
18 Wimborne Town 8 10 4 +6 12
19 Sholing 8 9 12 -3 10
20 Havant & Wville 9 9 16 -7 5
21 Hanwell Town 8 7 10 -3 7
22 Chippenham Town 8 7 16 -9 7
Non League Premier - Southern South England. Non League Premier - Southern South Predictions