Statistics / Football / England. Non League Premier - Southern South / Evesham United vs Berkhamsted

Evesham United vs Berkhamsted Statistics & Analysis

Evesham United Evesham United
Sep 12, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.16
0 1.44
xG Accuracy: 49%
Berkhamsted Berkhamsted
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Berkhamsted Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7448889

Closing Odds 2.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Evesham United 0–0 Berkhamsted
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Berkhamsted (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 6.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Evesham United (1X2) 28.8 32.4 -3.6
Draw (1X2) 29.3 27.9 +1.5
Berkhamsted (1X2) 41.9 39.7 +2.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 54.4 -6.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 45.6 +6.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.6%. The difference — about 6.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Evesham United (1X2) 2.79 2.79 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.25 3.25 0.0
Berkhamsted (1X2) 2.28 2.28 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.71 1.71 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.04 2.04 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Non League Premier - Southern South
  • Fixture: Evesham United vs Berkhamsted
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
  • xG (showing): Evesham United 1.16 — Berkhamsted 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.0% · Probability edge: +5.8 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Non League Premier - Southern South Non League Premier - Southern South — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Uxbridge 6 4 2 0 14
2 Plymouth Parkway 6 4 1 1 13
3 Hanworth Villa 6 4 1 1 13
4 Frome Town 6 4 0 2 12
5 Taunton Town 6 4 0 2 12
6 Chichester City 6 4 0 2 12
7 Chertsey Town 6 3 1 2 10
8 Berkhamsted 6 3 0 3 9
9 Poole Town 6 3 0 3 9
10 Evesham United 6 3 0 3 9
11 Bath City 6 2 2 2 8
12 Yate Town 6 2 2 2 8
13 Gosport Borough 6 2 1 3 7
14 Basingstoke Town 6 2 1 3 7
15 Sholing 6 2 1 3 7
16 Chippenham Town 6 2 1 3 7
17 Bracknell Town 6 2 1 3 7
18 Wimborne Town 6 1 3 2 6
19 Gloucester City 6 1 2 3 5
20 Hanwell Town 6 1 2 3 5
21 Havant & Wville 6 1 1 4 4
22 Malvern Town 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Taunton Town 6 19 14 +5 12
2 Plymouth Parkway 6 17 6 +11 13
3 Uxbridge 6 12 6 +6 14
4 Chertsey Town 6 12 10 +2 10
5 Hanworth Villa 6 11 3 +8 13
6 Chichester City 6 11 7 +4 12
7 Basingstoke Town 6 11 12 -1 7
8 Evesham United 6 11 14 -3 9
9 Frome Town 6 10 4 +6 12
10 Berkhamsted 6 9 10 -1 9
11 Gloucester City 6 8 10 -2 5
12 Bracknell Town 6 8 14 -6 7
13 Gosport Borough 6 7 7 0 7
14 Poole Town 6 7 9 -2 9
15 Yate Town 6 7 9 -2 8
16 Chippenham Town 6 7 12 -5 7
17 Havant & Wville 6 7 12 -5 4
18 Malvern Town 6 7 16 -9 2
19 Bath City 6 6 6 0 8
20 Sholing 6 6 9 -3 7
21 Wimborne Town 6 4 4 0 6
22 Hanwell Town 6 4 7 -3 5
Non League Premier - Southern South England. Non League Premier - Southern South Predictions