Statistics / Football / England. Non League Premier - Southern Central / Needham Market vs Anstey Nomads

Needham Market vs Anstey Nomads Statistics & Analysis

Needham Market Needham Market
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 85%
Anstey Nomads Anstey Nomads
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Needham Market Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13231197

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Needham Market 1–1 Anstey Nomads
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Non League Premier - Southern Central
  • Fixture: Needham Market vs Anstey Nomads
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Needham Market 1.33 — Anstey Nomads 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.7% · Probability edge: +11.1 pts · Est. EV: +21.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Non League Premier - Southern Central Non League Premier - Southern Central — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Bedford 9 9 0 0 27
2 Bury Town 9 8 0 1 24
3 Bromsgrove Sporting 9 7 1 1 22
4 Alvechurch 9 6 2 1 20
5 Kettering Town 9 5 3 1 18
6 Rushall Olympic 10 6 0 4 18
7 Peterborough Sports 10 4 4 2 16
8 Anstey Nomads 9 4 3 2 15
9 Needham Market 9 4 1 4 13
10 Halesowen Town 7 4 0 3 12
11 Leiston 9 3 2 4 11
12 Redditch United 9 2 4 3 10
13 Racing Club Warwick 10 2 4 4 10
14 Bishop's Stortford 9 3 1 5 10
15 Stourbridge 9 2 4 3 10
16 Leamington 9 2 3 4 9
17 Worcester City 9 1 4 4 7
18 Hitchin Town 10 1 4 5 7
19 Banbury United 9 1 3 5 6
20 Stratford Town 9 1 3 5 6
21 Leighton Town 9 1 2 6 5
22 Stamford 9 0 0 9 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Bedford 9 29 10 +19 27
2 Rushall Olympic 10 21 17 +4 18
3 Peterborough Sports 10 19 15 +4 16
4 Bury Town 9 18 8 +10 24
5 Needham Market 9 18 16 +2 13
6 Alvechurch 9 17 4 +13 20
7 Bromsgrove Sporting 9 17 8 +9 22
8 Leiston 9 17 17 0 11
9 Kettering Town 9 16 6 +10 18
10 Anstey Nomads 9 16 13 +3 15
11 Redditch United 9 12 13 -1 10
12 Leamington 9 12 14 -2 9
13 Leighton Town 9 12 20 -8 5
14 Racing Club Warwick 10 11 14 -3 10
15 Bishop's Stortford 9 10 13 -3 10
16 Stourbridge 9 9 12 -3 10
17 Banbury United 9 9 16 -7 6
18 Stratford Town 9 9 18 -9 6
19 Halesowen Town 7 8 8 0 12
20 Worcester City 9 7 12 -5 7
21 Hitchin Town 10 7 16 -9 7
22 Stamford 9 1 25 -24 0
Non League Premier - Southern Central England. Non League Premier - Southern Central Predictions