Worcester City vs Bromsgrove Sporting Statistics & Analysis

Worcester City

Aug 31, 2026 - 14:00

0 1.41

1 1.19

xG Accuracy: 64%

Bromsgrove Sporting

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Worcester City Bromsgrove Sporting ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 03:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5401693

Closing Odds 2.52

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Bromsgrove Sporting win · Worcester City 0–1 Bromsgrove Sporting

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Worcester City (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Worcester City (1X2) by about 4.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Worcester City (1X2)	40.5	36.0	+4.5
Draw (1X2)	29.4	28.1	+1.3
Bromsgrove Sporting (1X2)	30.1	35.9	-5.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	50.0	-1.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	50.0	+1.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 40.5% on Worcester City (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 36.0%. The difference — about 4.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE10)
Worcester City (1X2)	2.51	2.51
Draw (1X2)	3.22	3.22
Bromsgrove Sporting (1X2)	2.52	2.52
Over 2.5 goals	1.88	1.88
Under 2.5 goals	1.88	1.88

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Non League Premier - Southern Central
Fixture: Worcester City vs Bromsgrove Sporting
Kickoff: 2026-08-31 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
xG (showing): Worcester City 1.41 — Bromsgrove Sporting 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Worcester City & Bromsgrove Sporting!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Non League Premier - Southern Central — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Real Bedford	8	8	0	0	24
2	Bromsgrove Sporting	8	7	0	1	21
3	Bury Town	8	7	0	1	21
4	Alvechurch	8	6	1	1	19
5	Kettering Town	8	4	3	1	15
6	Anstey Nomads	8	4	3	1	15
7	Rushall Olympic	8	5	0	3	15
8	Peterborough Sports	8	3	3	2	12
9	Leiston	8	3	2	3	11
10	Needham Market	7	3	1	3	10
11	Bishop's Stortford	8	3	1	4	10
12	Redditch United	8	2	3	3	9
13	Halesowen Town	6	3	0	3	9
14	Stourbridge	7	2	3	2	9
15	Racing Club Warwick	8	1	3	4	6
16	Worcester City	8	1	3	4	6
17	Banbury United	8	1	3	4	6
18	Leighton Town	7	1	2	4	5
19	Leamington	7	1	2	4	5
20	Hitchin Town	8	0	4	4	4
21	Stratford Town	8	0	3	5	3
22	Stamford	8	0	0	8	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Real Bedford	8	26	8	+18	24
2	Alvechurch	8	17	4	+13	19
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	8	16	7	+9	21
4	Bury Town	8	16	7	+9	21
5	Rushall Olympic	8	16	13	+3	15
6	Anstey Nomads	8	15	9	+6	15
7	Leiston	8	15	14	+1	11
8	Peterborough Sports	8	13	11	+2	12
9	Kettering Town	8	12	5	+7	15
10	Needham Market	7	11	11	0	10
11	Redditch United	8	10	11	-1	9
12	Leighton Town	7	10	15	-5	5
13	Bishop's Stortford	8	9	11	-2	10
14	Stourbridge	7	9	11	-2	9
15	Racing Club Warwick	8	8	12	-4	6
16	Halesowen Town	6	7	8	-1	9
17	Banbury United	8	7	13	-6	6
18	Leamington	7	7	13	-6	5
19	Hitchin Town	8	6	12	-6	4
20	Stratford Town	8	6	16	-10	3
21	Worcester City	8	5	10	-5	6
22	Stamford	8	1	21	-20	0