Statistics / Football / England. Non League Premier - Northern / Ilkeston Town vs Guiseley AFC

Ilkeston Town vs Guiseley AFC Statistics & Analysis

Ilkeston Town Ilkeston Town
Oct 06, 2026 - 18:45
0 1.35
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 56%
Guiseley AFC Guiseley AFC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ilkeston Town Guiseley AFC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 30, 2026 · 02:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11917487

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Guiseley AFC win · Ilkeston Town 0–2 Guiseley AFC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Non League Premier - Northern
  • Fixture: Ilkeston Town vs Guiseley AFC
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-06 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Ilkeston Town 1.35 — Guiseley AFC 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.2% · Probability edge: +3.6 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 08, 2026 (UTC)

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Non League Premier - Northern Non League Premier - Northern — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Redcar Athletic 11 7 4 0 25
2 Cleethorpes Town 11 7 3 1 24
3 Avro 9 7 1 1 22
4 Workington 11 6 2 3 20
5 Guiseley AFC 10 6 1 3 19
6 Rylands 11 6 1 4 19
7 Warrington Town 9 5 2 2 17
8 Bury 9 5 1 3 16
9 Curzon Ashton 9 5 1 3 16
10 Lancaster City 11 5 1 5 16
11 Alfreton Town 11 5 0 6 15
12 Hyde United 11 4 2 5 14
13 Gainsborough Trinity 9 4 1 4 13
14 Whitby Town 10 4 0 6 12
15 Ashton United 9 3 2 4 11
16 AFC Emley 11 2 4 5 10
17 Leek Town 10 2 3 5 9
18 Quorn 10 2 3 5 9
19 Bamber Bridge 11 2 3 6 9
20 Stockton Town 11 2 2 7 8
21 Ilkeston Town 11 2 1 8 7
22 United of Manchester 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Avro 9 28 16 +12 22
2 Cleethorpes Town 11 26 7 +19 24
3 Redcar Athletic 11 22 8 +14 25
4 Guiseley AFC 10 22 11 +11 19
5 Workington 11 21 17 +4 20
6 Bury 9 19 8 +11 16
7 Leek Town 10 19 20 -1 9
8 Curzon Ashton 9 18 10 +8 16
9 Warrington Town 9 18 14 +4 17
10 Alfreton Town 11 17 13 +4 15
11 Rylands 11 17 14 +3 19
12 Quorn 10 16 25 -9 9
13 Bamber Bridge 11 16 31 -15 9
14 Whitby Town 10 15 26 -11 12
15 Gainsborough Trinity 9 14 12 +2 13
16 Stockton Town 11 14 22 -8 8
17 Lancaster City 11 13 19 -6 16
18 Hyde United 11 13 20 -7 14
19 United of Manchester 9 12 19 -7 5
20 Ashton United 9 10 9 +1 11
21 AFC Emley 11 10 22 -12 10
22 Ilkeston Town 11 7 24 -17 7
Non League Premier - Northern England. Non League Premier - Northern Predictions