Statistics / Football / England. Non League Premier - Isthmian / Enfield Town vs Dartford

Enfield Town vs Dartford Statistics & Analysis

Enfield Town Enfield Town
Sep 15, 2026 - 18:45
0 1.23
2 1.37
xG Accuracy: 60%
Dartford Dartford
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Dartford Dartford ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 02:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7706537

Closing Odds 2.44
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Dartford win · Enfield Town 0–2 Dartford
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Dartford (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 11.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Enfield Town (1X2) 31.9 37.5 -5.6
Draw (1X2) 29.6 26.4 +3.1
Dartford (1X2) 38.5 36.0 +2.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 60.1 -11.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 39.9 +11.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.9%. The difference — about 11.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Enfield Town (1X2) 2.42 2.44 +0.1
Draw (1X2) 3.41 3.46 -0.1
Dartford (1X2) 2.51 2.54 -0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.54 1.55 +0.1
Under 2.5 goals 2.32 2.34 -0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Non League Premier - Isthmian
  • Fixture: Enfield Town vs Dartford
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-15 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Enfield Town 1.23 — Dartford 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.4% · Probability edge: +11.4 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Non League Premier - Isthmian Non League Premier - Isthmian — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Enfield Town 6 5 0 1 15
2 Carshalton Athletic 6 5 0 1 15
3 Lewes 6 4 1 1 13
4 Welling United 6 4 0 2 12
5 Dartford 6 4 0 2 12
6 Dulwich Hamlet 6 3 1 2 10
7 Aveley 6 3 1 2 10
8 Leatherhead 6 3 1 2 10
9 St Albans City 6 3 1 2 10
10 Ramsgate 6 3 0 3 9
11 Chatham Town 6 3 0 3 9
12 Burgess Hill Town 6 2 3 1 9
13 Cray Wanderers 5 2 2 1 8
14 Wingate & Finchley 6 2 2 2 8
15 Eastbourne Borough 6 2 1 3 7
16 Maldon & Tiptree 4 2 0 2 6
17 Cheshunt 6 0 5 1 5
18 Three Bridges 6 1 1 4 4
19 Brentwood Town 5 1 0 4 3
20 Whitehawk 6 0 2 4 2
21 Whyteleafe 6 0 2 4 2
22 Stanway Rovers 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Enfield Town 6 20 7 +13 15
2 Ramsgate 6 15 8 +7 9
3 Dulwich Hamlet 6 14 8 +6 10
4 Carshalton Athletic 6 12 5 +7 15
5 Welling United 6 12 8 +4 12
6 Aveley 6 12 8 +4 10
7 Chatham Town 6 12 9 +3 9
8 Leatherhead 6 12 11 +1 10
9 Three Bridges 6 11 18 -7 4
10 St Albans City 6 10 10 0 10
11 Burgess Hill Town 6 9 7 +2 9
12 Eastbourne Borough 6 9 10 -1 7
13 Lewes 6 8 5 +3 13
14 Cray Wanderers 5 8 5 +3 8
15 Dartford 6 8 8 0 12
16 Wingate & Finchley 6 8 11 -3 8
17 Maldon & Tiptree 4 6 9 -3 6
18 Whyteleafe 6 6 17 -11 2
19 Brentwood Town 5 5 9 -4 3
20 Cheshunt 6 4 6 -2 5
21 Whitehawk 6 4 14 -10 2
22 Stanway Rovers 6 3 15 -12 1
Non League Premier - Isthmian England. Non League Premier - Isthmian Predictions