RB Leipzig U19 vs Erzgebirge Aue U19 Statistics & Analysis

RB Leipzig U19

Aug 22, 2026 - 10:00

7 1.56

1 1.04

xG Accuracy: 22%

Erzgebirge Aue U19

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 RB Leipzig U19 RB Leipzig U19 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 7-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4213489

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result RB Leipzig U19 win · RB Leipzig U19 7–1 Erzgebirge Aue U19

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: U19 Bundesliga
Fixture: RB Leipzig U19 vs Erzgebirge Aue U19
Kickoff: 2026-08-22 10:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 47.8% · Draw 28.5% · Away 23.7%
xG (showing): RB Leipzig U19 1.56 — Erzgebirge Aue U19 1.04 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.6% · No 47.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 52.6% · No 47.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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