Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 vs Nürnberg U19 Statistics & Analysis

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

Aug 19, 2026 - 16:00

0 1.06

5 1.54

xG Accuracy: 29%

Nürnberg U19

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Nürnberg U19 Nürnberg U19 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 13, 2026 · 01:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3819297

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Nürnberg U19 win · Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 0–5 Nürnberg U19

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: U19 Bundesliga
Fixture: Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 vs Nürnberg U19
Kickoff: 2026-08-19 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 24.6% · Draw 28.7% · Away 46.8%
xG (showing): Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 1.06 — Nürnberg U19 1.54 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.9% · No 47.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 52.9% · No 47.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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