Bahia U20 vs Fluminense de Feira U20 Statistics & Analysis

Bahia U20

Aug 01, 2026 - 18:00

2 1.41

3 1.19

xG Accuracy: 52%

Fluminense de Feira U20

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Bahia U20 Fluminense de Feira U20 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 05:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1824252

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Fluminense de Feira U20 win · Bahia U20 2–3 Fluminense de Feira U20

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Baiano U20
Fixture: Bahia U20 vs Fluminense de Feira U20
Kickoff: 2026-08-01 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
xG (showing): Bahia U20 1.41 — Fluminense de Feira U20 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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