Statistics / Football / Brazil. Cearense U20 / Fortaleza U20 vs Ferroviario U20

Fortaleza U20 vs Ferroviario U20 Statistics & Analysis

Fortaleza U20 Fortaleza U20
Aug 01, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.47
0 1.13
xG Accuracy: 48%
Ferroviario U20 Ferroviario U20
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fortaleza U20 Fortaleza U20 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 05:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1824237

Closing Odds 1.39
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Fortaleza U20 win · Fortaleza U20 3–0 Ferroviario U20
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Ferroviario U20 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ferroviario U20 (1X2) by about 13.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Fortaleza U20 (1X2) 43.3 63.8 -20.5
Draw (1X2) 29.2 22.1 +7.0
Ferroviario U20 (1X2) 27.5 14.0 +13.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 50.7 -2.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 49.3 +2.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.5% on Ferroviario U20 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.0%. The difference — about 13.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Fortaleza U20 (1X2) 1.39 1.39 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.01 4.01 0.0
Ferroviario U20 (1X2) 6.32 6.32 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.83 1.83 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.88 1.88 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Cearense U20
  • Fixture: Fortaleza U20 vs Ferroviario U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.5%
  • xG (showing): Fortaleza U20 1.47 — Ferroviario U20 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Cearense U20 Cearense U20 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vila Real FC U20 5 2 3 0 9
2 Ceará U20 3 2 1 0 7
3 Pague Menos U20 4 1 3 0 6
4 Caucaia U20 6 1 2 3 5
5 Horizonte U20 4 1 1 2 4
6 Anjos do Céu U20 3 1 0 2 3
7 Tiangua CE U20 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vila Real FC U20 5 11 3 +8 9
2 Pague Menos U20 4 10 2 +8 6
3 Ceará U20 3 5 3 +2 7
4 Horizonte U20 4 5 8 -3 4
5 Caucaia U20 6 3 5 -2 5
6 Anjos do Céu U20 3 3 8 -5 3
7 Tiangua CE U20 4 1 5 -4 0
Cearense U20 Brazil. Cearense U20 Predictions