Statistics / Football / Croatia. Second NL / Jarun vs Varteks Varaždin

Jarun vs Varteks Varaždin Statistics & Analysis

Jarun Jarun
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:30
1 1.39
0 1.21
xG Accuracy: 64%
Varteks Varaždin Varteks Varaždin
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Jarun Jarun ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13220051

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Jarun win · Jarun 1–0 Varteks Varaždin
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Second NL
  • Fixture: Jarun vs Varteks Varaždin
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Jarun 1.39 — Varteks Varaždin 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Second NL Second NL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bjelovar 6 4 1 1 13
2 Uskok Klis 6 4 0 2 12
3 Uljanik 6 3 2 1 11
4 Jarun 6 2 4 0 10
5 Trnje 6 3 1 2 10
6 Križevci 6 3 1 2 10
7 Dugo Selo 6 3 1 2 10
8 Zagora 6 2 3 1 9
9 Solin 6 2 2 2 8
10 Inter Zapresic 6 2 1 3 7
11 Hrvatski Dragovoljac 6 2 1 3 7
12 Grobničan Čavle 6 2 1 3 7
13 Lucko 6 1 2 3 5
14 Slavonija Požega 6 1 2 3 5
15 Koprivnica 6 1 1 4 4
16 Varteks Varaždin 6 1 1 4 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zagora 6 17 12 +5 9
2 Bjelovar 6 16 9 +7 13
3 Uskok Klis 6 14 7 +7 12
4 Jarun 6 14 10 +4 10
5 Uljanik 6 14 13 +1 11
6 Slavonija Požega 6 11 13 -2 5
7 Trnje 6 10 7 +3 10
8 Križevci 6 10 9 +1 10
9 Solin 6 9 9 0 8
10 Inter Zapresic 6 9 11 -2 7
11 Grobničan Čavle 6 8 13 -5 7
12 Koprivnica 6 8 16 -8 4
13 Dugo Selo 6 7 6 +1 10
14 Lucko 6 7 8 -1 5
15 Hrvatski Dragovoljac 6 5 8 -3 7
16 Varteks Varaždin 6 4 12 -8 4
Second NL Croatia. Second NL Predictions