Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Slavonija Požega Statistics & Analysis

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

Sep 12, 2026 - 14:30

1 1.21

0 1.39

xG Accuracy: 64%

Slavonija Požega

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Slavonija Požega Hrvatski Dragovoljac ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7455706

Closing Odds 2.37

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Hrvatski Dragovoljac win · Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1–0 Slavonija Požega

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Slavonija Požega (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 6.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Hrvatski Dragovoljac (1X2)	31.0	37.5	-6.5
Draw (1X2)	29.5	24.2	+5.3
Slavonija Požega (1X2)	39.5	38.3	+1.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	54.8	-6.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	45.2	+6.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.2%. The difference — about 6.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE10)	Closing (PRE1)
Hrvatski Dragovoljac (1X2)	2.37	2.37
Draw (1X2)	3.67	3.67
Slavonija Požega (1X2)	2.32	2.32
Over 2.5 goals	1.68	1.68
Under 2.5 goals	2.04	2.04

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Second NL
Fixture: Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Slavonija Požega
Kickoff: 2026-09-12 14:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
xG (showing): Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1.21 — Slavonija Požega 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.6% · Probability edge: +6.2 pts · Est. EV: +7.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Second NL — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Bjelovar	6	4	1	1	13
2	Uskok Klis	6	4	0	2	12
3	Uljanik	6	3	2	1	11
4	Jarun	6	2	4	0	10
5	Trnje	6	3	1	2	10
6	Križevci	6	3	1	2	10
7	Dugo Selo	6	3	1	2	10
8	Zagora	6	2	3	1	9
9	Solin	6	2	2	2	8
10	Inter Zapresic	6	2	1	3	7
11	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	6	2	1	3	7
12	Grobničan Čavle	6	2	1	3	7
13	Lucko	6	1	2	3	5
14	Slavonija Požega	6	1	2	3	5
15	Koprivnica	6	1	1	4	4
16	Varteks Varaždin	6	1	1	4	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Zagora	6	17	12	+5	9
2	Bjelovar	6	16	9	+7	13
3	Uskok Klis	6	14	7	+7	12
4	Jarun	6	14	10	+4	10
5	Uljanik	6	14	13	+1	11
6	Slavonija Požega	6	11	13	-2	5
7	Trnje	6	10	7	+3	10
8	Križevci	6	10	9	+1	10
9	Solin	6	9	9	0	8
10	Inter Zapresic	6	9	11	-2	7
11	Grobničan Čavle	6	8	13	-5	7
12	Koprivnica	6	8	16	-8	4
13	Dugo Selo	6	7	6	+1	10
14	Lucko	6	7	8	-1	5
15	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	6	5	8	-3	7
16	Varteks Varaždin	6	4	12	-8	4