Statistics / Football / Croatia. Second NL / Križevci vs Bjelovar

Križevci vs Bjelovar Statistics & Analysis

Križevci Križevci
Sep 05, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.44
4 1.16
xG Accuracy: 41%
Bjelovar Bjelovar
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Križevci Bjelovar ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6155537

Closing Odds 1.92
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Bjelovar win · Križevci 1–4 Bjelovar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Bjelovar (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Bjelovar (1X2) by about 2.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Križevci (1X2) 41.9 46.3 -4.4
Draw (1X2) 29.3 27.3 +2.1
Bjelovar (1X2) 28.8 26.4 +2.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 49.9 -1.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 50.1 +1.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.8% on Bjelovar (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.4%. The difference — about 2.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Križevci (1X2) 1.92 1.92 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.26 3.26 0.0
Bjelovar (1X2) 3.36 3.36 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.86 1.86 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.85 1.85 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second NL
  • Fixture: Križevci vs Bjelovar
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
  • xG (showing): Križevci 1.44 — Bjelovar 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Second NL Second NL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bjelovar 5 4 0 1 12
2 Uskok Klis 6 4 0 2 12
3 Uljanik 6 3 2 1 11
4 Trnje 5 3 1 1 10
5 Križevci 6 3 1 2 10
6 Jarun 5 1 4 0 7
7 Inter Zapresic 5 2 1 2 7
8 Grobničan Čavle 5 2 1 2 7
9 Dugo Selo 5 2 1 2 7
10 Hrvatski Dragovoljac 6 2 1 3 7
11 Zagora 5 1 3 1 6
12 Lucko 5 1 2 2 5
13 Slavonija Požega 6 1 2 3 5
14 Solin 5 1 2 2 5
15 Koprivnica 6 1 1 4 4
16 Varteks Varaždin 5 1 0 4 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bjelovar 5 15 8 +7 12
2 Uskok Klis 6 14 7 +7 12
3 Zagora 5 14 11 +3 6
4 Uljanik 6 14 13 +1 11
5 Jarun 5 11 10 +1 7
6 Slavonija Požega 6 11 13 -2 5
7 Križevci 6 10 9 +1 10
8 Trnje 5 9 4 +5 10
9 Inter Zapresic 5 9 8 +1 7
10 Grobničan Čavle 5 8 10 -2 7
11 Koprivnica 6 8 16 -8 4
12 Lucko 5 6 5 +1 5
13 Solin 5 6 8 -2 5
14 Hrvatski Dragovoljac 6 5 8 -3 7
15 Dugo Selo 5 4 6 -2 7
16 Varteks Varaždin 5 3 11 -8 3
Second NL Croatia. Second NL Predictions