Statistics / Football / Moldova. Super Liga / Sheriff Tiraspol vs Dacia-Buiucani

Sheriff Tiraspol vs Dacia-Buiucani Statistics & Analysis

Sheriff Tiraspol Sheriff Tiraspol
Aug 09, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.54
0 1.06
xG Accuracy: 64%
Dacia-Buiucani Dacia-Buiucani
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sheriff Tiraspol Sheriff Tiraspol ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2967044

Closing Odds 1.22
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Sheriff Tiraspol win · Sheriff Tiraspol 1–0 Dacia-Buiucani
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Dacia-Buiucani (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 14.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Sheriff Tiraspol (1X2) 46.8 72.3 -25.6
Draw (1X2) 28.7 16.4 +12.2
Dacia-Buiucani (1X2) 24.6 11.2 +13.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 62.6 -14.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 37.4 +14.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.4%. The difference — about 14.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Sheriff Tiraspol (1X2) 1.22 1.22 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.37 5.37 0.0
Dacia-Buiucani (1X2) 7.84 7.84 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.45 1.45 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.43 2.43 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Super Liga
  • Fixture: Sheriff Tiraspol vs Dacia-Buiucani
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.8% · Draw 28.7% · Away 24.6%
  • xG (showing): Sheriff Tiraspol 1.54 — Dacia-Buiucani 1.06 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.9% · No 47.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.9% · No 47.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Super Liga Super Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 13 8 4 1 28
2 Zimbru 13 8 2 3 26
3 Petrocub 13 7 3 3 24
4 Dacia-Buiucani 13 6 2 5 20
5 Milsami Orhei 13 4 5 4 17
6 Politehnica UTM 13 4 3 6 15
7 Sireți 13 0 7 6 7
8 CSF Bălți 13 1 2 10 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 13 32 10 +22 28
2 Zimbru 13 27 12 +15 26
3 Petrocub 13 24 13 +11 24
4 Politehnica UTM 13 18 19 -1 15
5 Dacia-Buiucani 13 17 16 +1 20
6 Milsami Orhei 13 13 17 -4 17
7 CSF Bălți 13 9 42 -33 5
8 Sireți 13 8 19 -11 7