Kahraba Ismailia vs Pharco Statistics & Analysis

Kahraba Ismailia

Sep 24, 2026 - 13:30

3 0.82

1 0.65

xG Accuracy: 50%

Pharco

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 draw Kahraba Ismailia ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 18, 2026 · 01:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9339177

Closing Odds 2.73

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Kahraba Ismailia win · Kahraba Ismailia 3–1 Pharco

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 15.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Kahraba Ismailia (1X2)	35.0	41.3	-6.4
Draw (1X2)	40.2	33.6	+6.5
Pharco (1X2)	24.9	25.1	-0.2
Over 2.5 goals	18.4	33.9	-15.5
Under 2.5 goals	81.6	66.1	+15.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 81.6% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 66.1%. The difference — about 15.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Kahraba Ismailia (1X2)	2.22	2.22
Draw (1X2)	2.73	2.73
Pharco (1X2)	3.66	3.66
Over 2.5 goals	2.75	2.75
Under 2.5 goals	1.41	1.41

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Second League
Fixture: Kahraba Ismailia vs Pharco
Kickoff: 2026-09-24 13:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 40.2% · Away 24.9%
xG (showing): Kahraba Ismailia 0.82 — Pharco 0.65 (total xG ≈ 1.47)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 81.6% · Implied: 65.5% · Probability edge: +16.1 pts · Est. EV: +17.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 28.3% · No 71.7%
Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (23.0%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Second League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Masar	6	5	1	0	16
2	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	6	4	2	0	14
3	Kahraba Ismailia	6	4	1	1	13
4	Haras El Hodood	5	4	1	0	13
5	Pharco	6	4	1	1	13
6	AL Nasr SC	6	2	3	1	9
7	Itesalat	5	3	0	2	9
8	Tersana	5	2	2	1	8
9	El Mansura	6	2	2	2	8
10	Team	6	2	1	3	7
11	Tanta SC	5	2	1	2	7
12	El Seka El Hadid	6	2	1	3	7
13	El Entag EL Harby	5	1	3	1	6
14	El Dakhleya	6	1	3	2	6
15	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	5	1	1	3	4
16	La Viena FC	5	0	3	2	3
17	Proxy	6	1	0	5	3
18	Mega Sport	5	0	2	3	2
19	Ismaily SC	5	0	2	3	2
20	Dayrout	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Masar	6	13	3	+10	16
2	Kahraba Ismailia	6	11	4	+7	13
3	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	6	8	2	+6	14
4	Haras El Hodood	5	8	2	+6	13
5	Pharco	6	8	5	+3	13
6	AL Nasr SC	6	7	4	+3	9
7	Itesalat	5	7	5	+2	9
8	El Entag EL Harby	5	7	5	+2	6
9	El Mansura	6	6	7	-1	8
10	Team	6	6	7	-1	7
11	El Seka El Hadid	6	6	9	-3	7
12	Tersana	5	4	4	0	8
13	Tanta SC	5	4	5	-1	7
14	Ismaily SC	5	4	9	-5	2
15	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	5	3	5	-2	4
16	La Viena FC	5	3	5	-2	3
17	El Dakhleya	6	3	6	-3	6
18	Mega Sport	5	3	6	-3	2
19	Proxy	6	2	7	-5	3
20	Dayrout	5	0	13	-13	0