Prediction Audit: Team vs Proxy Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sep 11, 2026 - 13:30
1 1.23
0 1.37
xG Accuracy: 64%

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade Not available

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Proxy Team ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct
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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 11, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  2. FT Full-time result Team win · 1–0

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: No prediction record
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7024600

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Team win · Team 1–0 Proxy
Prediction No prediction record
Decision Grade Not assessed

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Team vs Proxy
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Team 1.23 — Proxy 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 36.6% · Probability edge: +11.6 pts · Est. EV: +23.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Cautious / Wait

Outcome: —

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

November 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Masar 11 7 1 3 22
2 Pharco 11 7 1 3 22
3 Kahraba Ismailia 11 6 3 2 21
4 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 11 6 3 2 21
5 Haras El Hodood 11 5 5 1 20
6 El Mansura 11 6 2 3 20
7 Itesalat 11 6 1 4 19
8 El Seka El Hadid 11 5 3 3 18
9 AL Nasr SC 11 4 5 2 17
10 Tersana 11 4 5 2 17
11 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 11 4 3 4 15
12 Ismaily SC 11 3 4 4 13
13 Team 11 3 3 5 12
14 El Entag EL Harby 11 2 5 4 11
15 El Dakhleya 11 2 5 4 11
16 Tanta SC 11 2 4 5 10
17 La Viena FC 11 1 5 5 8
18 Proxy 11 2 2 7 8
19 Dayrout 11 1 4 6 7
20 Mega Sport 11 0 4 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Masar 11 22 12 +10 22
2 Kahraba Ismailia 11 19 10 +9 21
3 El Seka El Hadid 11 19 15 +4 18
4 Pharco 11 18 11 +7 22
5 El Entag EL Harby 11 17 16 +1 11
6 AL Nasr SC 11 15 10 +5 17
7 Itesalat 11 15 11 +4 19
8 El Mansura 11 15 12 +3 20
9 Haras El Hodood 11 14 7 +7 20
10 Tersana 11 13 9 +4 17
11 Ismaily SC 11 13 15 -2 13
12 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 11 12 6 +6 21
13 Team 11 11 16 -5 12
14 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 11 10 9 +1 15
15 El Dakhleya 11 9 15 -6 11
16 Proxy 11 8 17 -9 8
17 Mega Sport 11 8 19 -11 4
18 Tanta SC 11 7 13 -6 10
19 La Viena FC 11 6 12 -6 8
20 Dayrout 11 5 21 -16 7