Statistics / Football / Egypt. Second League / El Mansura vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

El Mansura vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla Statistics & Analysis

El Mansura El Mansura
Aug 20, 2026 - 13:30
2 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 75%
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla El Mansura ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 14, 2026 · 07:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3922130

Closing Odds 2.38
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result El Mansura win · El Mansura 2–1 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices El Mansura (1X2), Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (1X2) by about 6.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
El Mansura (1X2) 33.8 31.2 +2.6
Draw (1X2) 29.6 38.5 -8.8
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (1X2) 36.6 30.3 +6.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.6% on Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 30.3%. The difference — about 6.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
El Mansura (1X2) 2.94 2.94 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.38 2.38 0.0
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (1X2) 3.02 3.02 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: El Mansura vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-20 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): El Mansura 1.27 — Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 32.8% · Probability edge: +15.4 pts · Est. EV: +43.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Masar 6 5 1 0 16
2 Haras El Hodood 6 4 2 0 14
3 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 6 4 2 0 14
4 Kahraba Ismailia 6 4 1 1 13
5 Pharco 6 4 1 1 13
6 Itesalat 6 4 0 2 12
7 AL Nasr SC 6 2 3 1 9
8 Tersana 6 2 3 1 9
9 El Mansura 6 2 2 2 8
10 Tanta SC 6 2 2 2 8
11 El Entag EL Harby 6 1 4 1 7
12 Team 6 2 1 3 7
13 El Seka El Hadid 6 2 1 3 7
14 El Dakhleya 6 1 3 2 6
15 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 6 1 2 3 5
16 Ismaily SC 6 1 2 3 5
17 La Viena FC 6 0 3 3 3
18 Proxy 6 1 0 5 3
19 Mega Sport 6 0 2 4 2
20 Dayrout 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Masar 6 13 3 +10 16
2 Kahraba Ismailia 6 11 4 +7 13
3 Haras El Hodood 6 8 2 +6 14
4 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 6 8 2 +6 14
5 Pharco 6 8 5 +3 13
6 Itesalat 6 8 5 +3 12
7 AL Nasr SC 6 7 4 +3 9
8 El Entag EL Harby 6 7 5 +2 7
9 Ismaily SC 6 7 11 -4 5
10 El Mansura 6 6 7 -1 8
11 Team 6 6 7 -1 7
12 El Seka El Hadid 6 6 9 -3 7
13 Tersana 6 5 5 0 9
14 Mega Sport 6 5 9 -4 2
15 Tanta SC 6 4 5 -1 8
16 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 6 4 6 -2 5
17 El Dakhleya 6 3 6 -3 6
18 La Viena FC 6 3 6 -3 3
19 Proxy 6 2 7 -5 3
20 Dayrout 6 0 13 -13 1
Second League Egypt. Second League Predictions