Statistics / Football / Hungary. NB III - Southwest / Érdi VSE vs Kaposvar

Érdi VSE vs Kaposvar Statistics & Analysis

Érdi VSE Érdi VSE
Oct 03, 2026 - 11:00
3 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 57%
Kaposvar Kaposvar
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kaposvar Érdi VSE ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11222776

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Érdi VSE win · Érdi VSE 3–1 Kaposvar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: NB III - Southwest
  • Fixture: Érdi VSE vs Kaposvar
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Érdi VSE 1.28 — Kaposvar 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
NB III - Southwest NB III - Southwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Pécsi MFC 9 8 1 0 25
2 Kaposvar 8 5 1 2 16
3 Budafoki LC 8 5 1 2 16
4 PTE-PEAC 8 4 3 1 15
5 Siofok 8 4 2 2 14
6 Majosi 8 4 1 3 13
7 MTK Budapest II 7 4 0 3 12
8 Ferencváros II 8 3 3 2 12
9 Iváncsa 8 4 0 4 12
10 Dunaharaszti MTK 9 3 2 4 11
11 Budaörs 9 3 2 4 11
12 Érdi VSE 8 2 3 3 9
13 Sárbogárd 9 1 2 6 5
14 Paksi SE II 9 0 3 6 3
15 Szekszárd 8 0 0 8 0
15 Dunaujvaros FC 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Pécsi MFC 9 28 3 +25 25
2 Kaposvar 8 22 11 +11 16
3 MTK Budapest II 7 21 12 +9 12
4 Érdi VSE 8 18 20 -2 9
5 Ferencváros II 8 17 13 +4 12
6 Majosi 8 17 17 0 13
7 Iváncsa 8 17 19 -2 12
8 Budafoki LC 8 16 10 +6 16
9 Budaörs 9 16 26 -10 11
10 Siofok 8 15 9 +6 14
11 Dunaharaszti MTK 9 15 18 -3 11
12 PTE-PEAC 8 14 8 +6 15
13 Paksi SE II 9 11 22 -11 3
14 Sárbogárd 9 8 20 -12 5
15 Szekszárd 8 3 30 -27 0
16 Dunaujvaros FC 1 0 3 -3 0