Statistics / Football / Hungary. NB III - Southwest / Paksi SE II vs Szekszárd

Paksi SE II vs Szekszárd Statistics & Analysis

Paksi SE II Paksi SE II
Oct 03, 2026 - 09:00
8 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 15%
Szekszárd Szekszárd
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Paksi SE II Paksi SE II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 8-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11219492

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Paksi SE II win · Paksi SE II 8–1 Szekszárd
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: NB III - Southwest
  • Fixture: Paksi SE II vs Szekszárd
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Paksi SE II 1.32 — Szekszárd 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Southwest NB III - Southwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Pécsi MFC 10 9 1 0 28
2 Kaposvar 9 5 1 3 16
3 PTE-PEAC 9 4 4 1 16
4 Budafoki LC 9 5 1 3 16
5 Ferencváros II 9 4 3 2 15
6 Iváncsa 9 5 0 4 15
7 Siofok 9 4 2 3 14
8 Majosi 9 4 2 3 14
9 Dunaharaszti MTK 10 4 2 4 14
10 MTK Budapest II 8 4 0 4 12
11 Érdi VSE 9 3 3 3 12
12 Budaörs 9 3 2 4 11
13 Paksi SE II 10 1 3 6 6
14 Sárbogárd 10 1 2 7 5
15 Szekszárd 9 0 0 9 0
15 Dunaujvaros FC 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Pécsi MFC 10 30 4 +26 28
2 Kaposvar 9 23 14 +9 16
3 MTK Budapest II 8 21 14 +7 12
4 Iváncsa 9 21 20 +1 15
5 Érdi VSE 9 21 21 0 12
6 Ferencváros II 9 19 13 +6 15
7 Paksi SE II 10 19 23 -4 6
8 Majosi 9 18 18 0 14
9 Budafoki LC 9 17 12 +5 16
10 Dunaharaszti MTK 10 17 19 -2 14
11 Siofok 9 16 11 +5 14
12 Budaörs 9 16 26 -10 11
13 PTE-PEAC 9 15 9 +6 16
14 Sárbogárd 10 9 24 -15 5
15 Szekszárd 9 4 38 -34 0
16 Dunaujvaros FC 1 0 3 -3 0