Ferencváros II vs Sárbogárd Statistics & Analysis

Ferencváros II

Aug 29, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.40

0 1.20

xG Accuracy: 64%

Sárbogárd

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Ferencváros II Ferencváros II ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5135128

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Ferencváros II win · Ferencváros II 1–0 Sárbogárd

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: NB III - Southwest
Fixture: Ferencváros II vs Sárbogárd
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
xG (showing): Ferencváros II 1.4 — Sárbogárd 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Southwest — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	8	8	0	0	24
2	Budafoki LC	7	5	1	1	16
3	Kaposvar	7	5	0	2	15
4	PTE-PEAC	7	4	2	1	14
5	Majosi	8	4	1	3	13
6	MTK Budapest II	7	4	0	3	12
7	Ferencváros II	7	3	2	2	11
8	Siofok	7	3	2	2	11
9	Budaörs	8	3	1	4	10
10	Érdi VSE	7	2	3	2	9
11	Iváncsa	7	3	0	4	9
12	Dunaharaszti MTK	8	2	2	4	8
13	Sárbogárd	8	1	1	6	4
14	Paksi SE II	8	0	3	5	3
15	Szekszárd	8	0	0	8	0
15	Dunaujvaros FC	1	0	0	1	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	8	27	2	+25	24
2	MTK Budapest II	7	21	12	+9	12
3	Kaposvar	7	20	9	+11	15
4	Érdi VSE	7	17	16	+1	9
5	Majosi	8	17	17	0	13
6	Ferencváros II	7	15	11	+4	11
7	Budaörs	8	15	25	-10	10
8	Budafoki LC	7	14	6	+8	16
9	PTE-PEAC	7	13	7	+6	14
10	Iváncsa	7	13	18	-5	9
11	Siofok	7	12	8	+4	11
12	Dunaharaszti MTK	8	11	16	-5	8
13	Paksi SE II	8	10	19	-9	3
14	Sárbogárd	8	7	19	-12	4
15	Szekszárd	8	3	30	-27	0
16	Dunaujvaros FC	1	0	3	-3	0