ESMTK vs Dabas Statistics & Analysis

ESMTK

Sep 27, 2026 - 14:00

6 1.51

0 1.09

xG Accuracy: 22%

Dabas

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 ESMTK ESMTK ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 6-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10098911

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result ESMTK win · ESMTK 6–0 Dabas

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: NB III - Southeast
Fixture: ESMTK vs Dabas
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Away 25.8%
xG (showing): ESMTK 1.51 — Dabas 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

NB III - Southeast — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Gyulai Termál	9	9	0	0	27
2	III. Kerületi TUE	9	8	0	1	24
3	Újpest II	9	5	2	2	17
4	ESMTK	8	4	3	1	15
5	Szeged-Csanád II	9	4	3	2	15
6	Vasas II	9	4	2	3	14
7	Csepel	9	3	4	2	13
8	Monori Se	9	3	4	2	13
9	Szolnoki MAV FC	9	3	4	2	13
10	Dabas	8	3	1	4	10
11	Honvéd II	9	2	2	5	8
12	Bekescsaba 1912	8	1	4	3	7
13	Hódmezővásárhely	9	1	3	5	6
14	BKV Előre	8	1	1	6	4
15	Sándorfalva	9	1	1	7	4
16	Szegedi VSE	9	0	2	7	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Gyulai Termál	9	33	5	+28	27
2	Újpest II	9	25	14	+11	17
3	Vasas II	9	20	11	+9	14
4	Csepel	9	20	15	+5	13
5	Szolnoki MAV FC	9	20	20	0	13
6	Monori Se	9	19	15	+4	13
7	Szeged-Csanád II	9	18	13	+5	15
8	ESMTK	8	17	9	+8	15
9	Honvéd II	9	17	15	+2	8
10	III. Kerületi TUE	9	15	3	+12	24
11	Dabas	8	12	18	-6	10
12	Szegedi VSE	9	11	30	-19	2
13	Bekescsaba 1912	8	10	14	-4	7
14	Hódmezővásárhely	9	10	21	-11	6
15	BKV Előre	8	7	29	-22	4
16	Sándorfalva	9	6	28	-22	4