Balatonalmádi vs Tatabánya Statistics & Analysis

Balatonalmádi

Aug 30, 2026 - 15:30

0 1.17

4 1.43

xG Accuracy: 36%

Tatabánya

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Tatabánya Tatabánya ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5299151

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Tatabánya win · Balatonalmádi 0–4 Tatabánya

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: NB III - Northwest
Fixture: Balatonalmádi vs Tatabánya
Kickoff: 2026-08-30 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
xG (showing): Balatonalmádi 1.17 — Tatabánya 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Northwest — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Haladás VSE	8	6	2	0	20
2	Tatabánya	9	6	2	1	20
3	Dorogi FC	8	6	1	1	19
4	Sárisápi Bányász	9	5	1	3	16
5	MTE 1904	8	4	3	1	15
6	Bicskei	9	5	0	4	15
7	Komárom	9	4	3	2	15
8	Gyori ETO II	9	4	2	3	14
9	SC Sopron	9	3	3	3	12
10	Zalaegerszegi TE II	9	3	1	5	10
11	Puskás II	8	3	0	5	9
12	Veszprém	9	2	3	4	9
13	Pápai Perutz	8	2	2	4	8
14	Király SZE	9	1	3	5	6
15	Szombathelyi Haladas	1	0	1	0	1
15	Balatonalmádi	8	1	0	7	3
16	1908 SZAC	9	0	2	7	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Dorogi FC	8	26	6	+20	19
2	Haladás VSE	8	24	7	+17	20
3	Tatabánya	9	23	8	+15	20
4	Bicskei	9	23	20	+3	15
5	Komárom	9	16	13	+3	15
6	Sárisápi Bányász	9	15	15	0	16
7	Zalaegerszegi TE II	9	15	17	-2	10
8	MTE 1904	8	14	7	+7	15
9	Gyori ETO II	9	14	10	+4	14
10	Puskás II	8	14	17	-3	9
11	Veszprém	9	14	21	-7	9
12	SC Sopron	9	12	13	-1	12
13	Király SZE	9	9	17	-8	6
14	Pápai Perutz	8	7	14	-7	8
15	Balatonalmádi	8	7	26	-19	3
16	1908 SZAC	9	5	27	-22	2
17	Szombathelyi Haladas	1	1	1	0	1