Statistics / Football / Hungary. NB III - Northwest / Gyori ETO II vs Sárisápi Bányász

Gyori ETO II vs Sárisápi Bányász Statistics & Analysis

Gyori ETO II Gyori ETO II
Aug 08, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.29
3 1.31
xG Accuracy: 52%
Sárisápi Bányász Sárisápi Bányász
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sárisápi Bányász Sárisápi Bányász ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 00:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2960160

Closing Odds 1.43
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Sárisápi Bányász win · Gyori ETO II 2–3 Sárisápi Bányász
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Sárisápi Bányász (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sárisápi Bányász (1X2) by about 18.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Gyori ETO II (1X2) 34.7 61.9 -27.2
Draw (1X2) 29.7 21.4 +8.3
Sárisápi Bányász (1X2) 35.6 16.7 +18.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 60.6 -12.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 39.4 +12.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.6% on Sárisápi Bányász (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.7%. The difference — about 18.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Gyori ETO II (1X2) 1.43 1.43 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.14 4.14 0.0
Sárisápi Bányász (1X2) 5.3 5.3 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.51 1.51 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.32 2.32 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: NB III - Northwest
  • Fixture: Gyori ETO II vs Sárisápi Bányász
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Gyori ETO II 1.29 — Sárisápi Bányász 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.2% · Probability edge: +11.6 pts · Est. EV: +20.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
NB III - Northwest NB III - Northwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Haladás VSE 8 6 2 0 20
2 Tatabánya 9 6 2 1 20
3 Dorogi FC 8 6 1 1 19
4 Sárisápi Bányász 9 5 1 3 16
5 MTE 1904 8 4 3 1 15
6 Bicskei 9 5 0 4 15
7 Komárom 9 4 3 2 15
8 Gyori ETO II 9 4 2 3 14
9 SC Sopron 9 3 3 3 12
10 Zalaegerszegi TE II 9 3 1 5 10
11 Puskás II 8 3 0 5 9
12 Veszprém 9 2 3 4 9
13 Pápai Perutz 8 2 2 4 8
14 Király SZE 9 1 3 5 6
15 Szombathelyi Haladas 1 0 1 0 1
15 Balatonalmádi 8 1 0 7 3
16 1908 SZAC 9 0 2 7 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dorogi FC 8 26 6 +20 19
2 Haladás VSE 8 24 7 +17 20
3 Tatabánya 9 23 8 +15 20
4 Bicskei 9 23 20 +3 15
5 Komárom 9 16 13 +3 15
6 Sárisápi Bányász 9 15 15 0 16
7 Zalaegerszegi TE II 9 15 17 -2 10
8 MTE 1904 8 14 7 +7 15
9 Gyori ETO II 9 14 10 +4 14
10 Puskás II 8 14 17 -3 9
11 Veszprém 9 14 21 -7 9
12 SC Sopron 9 12 13 -1 12
13 Király SZE 9 9 17 -8 6
14 Pápai Perutz 8 7 14 -7 8
15 Balatonalmádi 8 7 26 -19 3
16 1908 SZAC 9 5 27 -22 2
17 Szombathelyi Haladas 1 1 1 0 1
NB III - Northwest Hungary. NB III - Northwest Predictions