Elgin City vs Aberdeen U21 Statistics & Analysis

Oct 13, 2026 - 18:45

0 1.36

1 1.24

xG Accuracy: 64%

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 07, 2026 · 02:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13667453

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Aberdeen U21 win · Elgin City 0–1 Aberdeen U21

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Challenge Cup
Fixture: Elgin City vs Aberdeen U21
Kickoff: 2026-10-13 18:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Elgin City 1.36 — Aberdeen U21 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 36.2% · Probability edge: +15.6 pts · Est. EV: +42.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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