Statistics / Football / Scotland. Challenge Cup / Cowdenbeath vs Celtic II

Cowdenbeath vs Celtic II Statistics & Analysis

Cowdenbeath Cowdenbeath
Oct 13, 2026 - 18:45
2 1.36
3 1.24
xG Accuracy: 52%
Celtic II Celtic II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cowdenbeath Celtic II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 07, 2026 · 02:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13667141

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Celtic II win · Cowdenbeath 2–3 Celtic II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Challenge Cup
  • Fixture: Cowdenbeath vs Celtic II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-13 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Cowdenbeath 1.36 — Celtic II 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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