Statistics / Football / Scotland. Challenge Cup / Fraserburgh vs Stirling Albion

Fraserburgh vs Stirling Albion Statistics & Analysis

Fraserburgh Fraserburgh
Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00
4 1.30
3 1.30
xG Accuracy: 30%
Stirling Albion Stirling Albion
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fraserburgh Fraserburgh ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10101734

Closing Odds 2.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Fraserburgh win · Fraserburgh 4–3 Stirling Albion
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Fraserburgh (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 21.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Fraserburgh (1X2) 35.2 32.6 +2.5
Draw (1X2) 29.6 23.6 +6.0
Stirling Albion (1X2) 35.2 43.8 -8.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 69.5 -21.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 30.5 +21.3
BTTS Yes 54.5 68.8 -14.3
BTTS No 45.5 31.2 +14.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 30.5%. The difference — about 21.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Fraserburgh (1X2) 2.75 2.75 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.8 3.8 0.0
Stirling Albion (1X2) 2.05 2.05 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.36 1.36 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 3.1 3.1 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.36 1.36 0.0
BTTS No 3.0 3.0 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Challenge Cup
  • Fixture: Fraserburgh vs Stirling Albion
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Fraserburgh 1.3 — Stirling Albion 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 30.1% · Probability edge: +21.7 pts · Est. EV: +70.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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