Statistics / Football / Scotland. Challenge Cup / East Fife vs Motherwell U21

East Fife vs Motherwell U21 Statistics & Analysis

East Fife East Fife
Sep 15, 2026 - 18:45
4 1.43
1 1.17
xG Accuracy: 47%
Motherwell U21 Motherwell U21
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 East Fife East Fife ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 02:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7706233

Closing Odds 1.17
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result East Fife win · East Fife 4–1 Motherwell U21
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 5.57 percentage points on East Fife (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE5.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Motherwell U21 (1X2) by about 21.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
East Fife (1X2) 41.4 78.4 -37.1
Draw (1X2) 29.4 13.5 +15.9
Motherwell U21 (1X2) 29.3 8.1 +21.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 65.8 -17.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 34.2 +17.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.3% on Motherwell U21 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 8.1%. The difference — about 21.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Bet365 → Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
East Fife (1X2) 1.22 1.17 +5.6
Draw (1X2) 5.0 6.82 -4.3
Motherwell U21 (1X2) 9.5 11.32 -1.2
Over 2.5 goals 1.44 1.4 +0.6
Under 2.5 goals 2.7 2.69 -0.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours East Fife; market prices East Fife instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: East Fife 1.43 xG vs Motherwell U21 1.17 → East Fife 41.4%
  • Market: East Fife ~78.4% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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