Statistics / Football / Scotland. Challenge Cup / Kelty Hearts vs Motherwell U21

Kelty Hearts vs Motherwell U21 Statistics & Analysis

Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts
Aug 11, 2026 - 18:45
4 1.44
3 1.16
xG Accuracy: 30%
Motherwell U21 Motherwell U21
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 02:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3019855

Closing Odds 1.22
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Kelty Hearts win · Kelty Hearts 4–3 Motherwell U21
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Motherwell U21 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Motherwell U21 (1X2) by about 19.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Kelty Hearts (1X2) 41.9 73.8 -32.0
Draw (1X2) 29.3 16.6 +12.8
Motherwell U21 (1X2) 28.8 9.6 +19.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 61.3 -13.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 38.7 +13.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.8% on Motherwell U21 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 9.6%. The difference — about 19.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Kelty Hearts (1X2) 1.22 1.22 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.44 5.44 0.0
Motherwell U21 (1X2) 9.34 9.34 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.5 1.5 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.38 2.38 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Kelty Hearts; market prices Kelty Hearts instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Kelty Hearts 1.44 xG vs Motherwell U21 1.16 → Kelty Hearts 41.9%
  • Market: Kelty Hearts ~73.8% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Kelty Hearts & Motherwell U21!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Challenge Cup Scotland. Challenge Cup Predictions