Statistics / Football / Greece. Super League 1 / AEK Athens FC vs OFI

AEK Athens FC vs OFI Statistics & Analysis

AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC
Oct 10, 2026 - 16:30
3 1.75
0 0.75
xG Accuracy: 58%
OFI OFI
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-1, 0-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13239168

Closing Odds 1.24
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result AEK Athens FC win · AEK Athens FC 3–0 OFI
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), OFI (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 8.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
AEK Athens FC (1X2) 59.9 73.5 -13.7
Draw (1X2) 25.9 17.4 +8.5
OFI (1X2) 14.2 9.1 +5.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 25.9% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.4%. The difference — about 8.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
AEK Athens FC (1X2) 1.24 1.24 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.25 5.25 0.0
OFI (1X2) 10.0 10.0 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Super League 1
  • Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs OFI
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 59.9% · Draw 25.9% · Away 14.2%
  • xG (showing): AEK Athens FC 1.75 — OFI 0.75 (total xG ≈ 2.5)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 54.4% · Implied: 38.3% · Probability edge: +16.1 pts · Est. EV: +38.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League 1 Super League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Panathinaikos 5 5 0 0 15
2 PAOK 5 4 0 1 12
3 AEK Athens FC 5 3 2 0 11
4 OFI 5 3 1 1 10
5 Olympiakos Piraeus 5 3 1 1 10
6 Panetolikos 5 3 0 2 9
7 Aris Thessalonikis 5 2 1 2 7
8 Iraklis 1908 5 1 3 1 6
9 Kifisia 5 1 2 2 5
10 Kalamata 5 1 1 3 4
11 Atromitos 5 0 2 3 2
12 Asteras Tripolis 5 0 2 3 2
13 Volos NFC 5 0 2 3 2
14 Levadiakos 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 AEK Athens FC 5 13 3 +10 11
2 Panathinaikos 5 12 2 +10 15
3 PAOK 5 12 5 +7 12
4 OFI 5 8 4 +4 10
5 Panetolikos 5 8 7 +1 9
6 Kalamata 5 6 8 -2 4
7 Aris Thessalonikis 5 5 10 -5 7
8 Olympiakos Piraeus 5 4 2 +2 10
9 Iraklis 1908 5 4 6 -2 6
10 Kifisia 5 4 7 -3 5
11 Atromitos 5 4 7 -3 2
12 Asteras Tripolis 5 4 9 -5 2
13 Volos NFC 5 4 9 -5 2
14 Levadiakos 5 0 9 -9 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Olympiakos Piraeus 5 5.7 1.7 +4.0 10
2 Aris Thessalonikis 5 7.7 4.0 +3.7 7
3 AEK Athens FC 5 4.2 1.7 +2.5 11
4 Kifisia 5 3.8 1.8 +2.0 5
5 Panathinaikos 5 4.4 3.0 +1.4 15
6 Asteras Tripolis 5 4.2 3.6 +0.6 2
7 PAOK 5 4.7 4.3 +0.4 12
8 Panetolikos 5 3.6 3.8 -0.2 9
9 Iraklis 1908 5 2.1 3.7 -1.6 6
10 OFI 5 3.6 5.4 -1.8 10
11 Levadiakos 5 2.3 4.2 -1.9 1
12 Kalamata 5 2.9 5.4 -2.5 4
13 Volos NFC 5 2.1 4.6 -2.5 2
14 Atromitos 5 2.2 6.3 -4.1 2
Super League 1 Greece. Super League 1 Predictions