Statistics / Football / Greece. Super League 1 / OFI vs Asteras Tripolis

OFI vs Asteras Tripolis Statistics & Analysis

OFI OFI
Sep 20, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.08
2 0.98
xG Accuracy: 59%
Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 OFI Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8698636

Closing Odds 2.24
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · OFI 2–2 Asteras Tripolis
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Asteras Tripolis (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 6.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
OFI (1X2) 35.7 43.0 -7.3
Draw (1X2) 33.8 30.3 +3.5
Asteras Tripolis (1X2) 30.5 26.7 +3.8
Over 2.5 goals 34.0 40.7 -6.7
Under 2.5 goals 66.0 59.3 +6.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 66.0% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 59.3%. The difference — about 6.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
OFI (1X2) 2.24 2.24 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.18 3.18 0.0
Asteras Tripolis (1X2) 3.61 3.61 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.36 2.36 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.62 1.62 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Super League 1
  • Fixture: OFI vs Asteras Tripolis
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.7% · Draw 33.8% · Away 30.5%
  • xG (showing): OFI 1.08 — Asteras Tripolis 0.98 (total xG ≈ 2.06)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 66.0% · Implied: 58.7% · Probability edge: +7.3 pts · Est. EV: +7.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 21, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Super League 1 Super League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Panathinaikos 4 4 0 0 12
2 PAOK 4 3 0 1 9
3 OFI 4 3 0 1 9
4 Panetolikos 4 3 0 1 9
5 AEK Athens FC 4 2 2 0 8
6 Olympiakos Piraeus 4 2 1 1 7
7 Aris Thessalonikis 5 2 1 2 7
8 Iraklis 1908 5 1 3 1 6
9 Kifisia 5 1 2 2 5
10 Kalamata 4 1 1 2 4
11 Atromitos 5 0 2 3 2
12 Volos NFC 4 0 2 2 2
13 Asteras Tripolis 4 0 1 3 1
14 Levadiakos 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Panathinaikos 4 11 2 +9 12
2 AEK Athens FC 4 11 2 +9 8
3 PAOK 4 9 4 +5 9
4 Panetolikos 4 7 4 +3 9
5 OFI 4 6 2 +4 9
6 Kalamata 4 6 7 -1 4
7 Aris Thessalonikis 5 5 10 -5 7
8 Iraklis 1908 5 4 6 -2 6
9 Kifisia 5 4 7 -3 5
10 Atromitos 5 4 7 -3 2
11 Olympiakos Piraeus 4 3 2 +1 7
12 Volos NFC 4 3 7 -4 2
13 Asteras Tripolis 4 2 7 -5 1
14 Levadiakos 4 0 8 -8 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Olympiakos Piraeus 4 4.9 1.1 +3.8 7
2 Aris Thessalonikis 5 4.5 2.8 +1.7 7
3 Panathinaikos 4 3.9 2.2 +1.7 12
4 Kifisia 5 2.2 1.1 +1.1 5
5 AEK Athens FC 4 2.5 1.5 +1.0 8
6 Panetolikos 4 3.0 2.2 +0.8 9
7 PAOK 4 4.7 4.3 +0.4 9
8 Asteras Tripolis 4 3.0 3.1 -0.1 1
9 OFI 4 3.4 3.7 -0.3 9
10 Volos NFC 4 0.8 1.4 -0.6 2
11 Iraklis 1908 5 1.3 3.0 -1.7 6
12 Levadiakos 4 1.6 3.4 -1.8 1
13 Kalamata 4 2.9 5.4 -2.5 4
14 Atromitos 5 1.7 5.1 -3.4 2