Statistics / Football / Greece. Super League 1 / Kalamata vs Volos NFC

Kalamata vs Volos NFC Statistics & Analysis

Kalamata Kalamata
Sep 13, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.18
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 56%
Volos NFC Volos NFC
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Volos NFC Kalamata ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7447873

Closing Odds 2.53
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Kalamata win · Kalamata 3–1 Volos NFC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Volos NFC (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Volos NFC (1X2) by about 4.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Kalamata (1X2) 32.9 38.1 -5.2
Draw (1X2) 30.3 30.0 +0.3
Volos NFC (1X2) 36.8 31.9 +4.9
Over 2.5 goals 45.4 45.4 +0.0
Under 2.5 goals 54.6 54.6 -0.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.8% on Volos NFC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 31.9%. The difference — about 4.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Kalamata (1X2) 2.53 2.53 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.21 3.21 0.0
Volos NFC (1X2) 3.02 3.02 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.12 2.12 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.76 1.76 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Super League 1
  • Fixture: Kalamata vs Volos NFC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 30.3% · Away 36.8%
  • xG (showing): Kalamata 1.18 — Volos NFC 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.49)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 45.4% · Implied: 43.7% · Probability edge: +1.7 pts · Est. EV: +6.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Kalamata & Volos NFC!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Super League 1 Super League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Panathinaikos 5 5 0 0 15
2 PAOK 5 4 0 1 12
3 AEK Athens FC 5 3 2 0 11
4 OFI 5 3 1 1 10
5 Olympiakos Piraeus 5 3 1 1 10
6 Panetolikos 5 3 0 2 9
7 Aris Thessalonikis 5 2 1 2 7
8 Iraklis 1908 5 1 3 1 6
9 Kifisia 5 1 2 2 5
10 Kalamata 5 1 1 3 4
11 Atromitos 5 0 2 3 2
12 Asteras Tripolis 5 0 2 3 2
13 Volos NFC 5 0 2 3 2
14 Levadiakos 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 AEK Athens FC 5 13 3 +10 11
2 Panathinaikos 5 12 2 +10 15
3 PAOK 5 12 5 +7 12
4 OFI 5 8 4 +4 10
5 Panetolikos 5 8 7 +1 9
6 Kalamata 5 6 8 -2 4
7 Aris Thessalonikis 5 5 10 -5 7
8 Olympiakos Piraeus 5 4 2 +2 10
9 Iraklis 1908 5 4 6 -2 6
10 Kifisia 5 4 7 -3 5
11 Atromitos 5 4 7 -3 2
12 Asteras Tripolis 5 4 9 -5 2
13 Volos NFC 5 4 9 -5 2
14 Levadiakos 5 0 9 -9 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Olympiakos Piraeus 5 4.9 1.1 +3.8 10
2 Aris Thessalonikis 5 4.5 2.8 +1.7 7
3 Panathinaikos 5 3.9 2.2 +1.7 15
4 Kifisia 5 2.2 1.1 +1.1 5
5 AEK Athens FC 5 2.5 1.5 +1.0 11
6 Panetolikos 5 3.0 2.2 +0.8 9
7 PAOK 5 4.7 4.3 +0.4 12
8 Asteras Tripolis 5 3.0 3.1 -0.1 2
9 OFI 5 3.4 3.7 -0.3 10
10 Volos NFC 5 0.8 1.4 -0.6 2
11 Iraklis 1908 5 1.3 3.0 -1.7 6
12 Levadiakos 5 1.6 3.4 -1.8 1
13 Kalamata 5 2.9 5.4 -2.5 4
14 Atromitos 5 1.7 5.1 -3.4 2