Statistics / Football / Greece. Super League 1 / Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos

Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos Statistics & Analysis

Levadiakos Levadiakos
Aug 31, 2026 - 16:30
0 0.70
2 1.90
xG Accuracy: 80%
Panathinaikos Panathinaikos
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-3 0-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 03:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5150732

Closing Odds 5.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Panathinaikos win · Levadiakos 0–2 Panathinaikos
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.78 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Panathinaikos (1X2) by about 5.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Levadiakos (1X2) 11.7 16.7 -5.0
Draw (1X2) 23.7 23.7 +0.0
Panathinaikos (1X2) 64.6 59.6 +5.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 49.4 -1.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 50.6 +1.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 64.6% on Panathinaikos (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 59.6%. The difference — about 5.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Levadiakos (1X2) 5.72 5.73 -0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.1 4.05 +0.3
Panathinaikos (1X2) 1.6 1.61 -0.3
Over 2.5 goals 1.93 1.96 -0.8
Under 2.5 goals 1.94 1.91 +0.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Super League 1
  • Fixture: Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-31 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 11.7% · Draw 23.7% · Away 64.6%
  • xG (showing): Levadiakos 0.7 — Panathinaikos 1.9 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 55.9% · Implied: 49.8% · Probability edge: +6.1 pts · Est. EV: +7.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League 1 Super League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Panathinaikos 5 5 0 0 15
2 PAOK 5 4 0 1 12
3 AEK Athens FC 5 3 2 0 11
4 OFI 5 3 1 1 10
5 Olympiakos Piraeus 5 3 1 1 10
6 Panetolikos 5 3 0 2 9
7 Aris Thessalonikis 5 2 1 2 7
8 Iraklis 1908 5 1 3 1 6
9 Kifisia 5 1 2 2 5
10 Kalamata 5 1 1 3 4
11 Atromitos 5 0 2 3 2
12 Asteras Tripolis 5 0 2 3 2
13 Volos NFC 5 0 2 3 2
14 Levadiakos 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 AEK Athens FC 5 13 3 +10 11
2 Panathinaikos 5 12 2 +10 15
3 PAOK 5 12 5 +7 12
4 OFI 5 8 4 +4 10
5 Panetolikos 5 8 7 +1 9
6 Kalamata 5 6 8 -2 4
7 Aris Thessalonikis 5 5 10 -5 7
8 Olympiakos Piraeus 5 4 2 +2 10
9 Iraklis 1908 5 4 6 -2 6
10 Kifisia 5 4 7 -3 5
11 Atromitos 5 4 7 -3 2
12 Asteras Tripolis 5 4 9 -5 2
13 Volos NFC 5 4 9 -5 2
14 Levadiakos 5 0 9 -9 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Olympiakos Piraeus 5 4.9 1.1 +3.8 10
2 Aris Thessalonikis 5 4.5 2.8 +1.7 7
3 Panathinaikos 5 3.9 2.2 +1.7 15
4 Kifisia 5 2.2 1.1 +1.1 5
5 AEK Athens FC 5 2.5 1.5 +1.0 11
6 Panetolikos 5 3.0 2.2 +0.8 9
7 PAOK 5 4.7 4.3 +0.4 12
8 Asteras Tripolis 5 3.0 3.1 -0.1 2
9 OFI 5 3.4 3.7 -0.3 10
10 Volos NFC 5 0.8 1.4 -0.6 2
11 Iraklis 1908 5 1.3 3.0 -1.7 6
12 Levadiakos 5 1.6 3.4 -1.8 1
13 Kalamata 5 2.9 5.4 -2.5 4
14 Atromitos 5 1.7 5.1 -3.4 2