Statistics / Football / Germany. Frauen Bundesliga / FC Koln W vs SC Freiburg W

FC Koln W vs SC Freiburg W Statistics & Analysis

FC Koln W FC Koln W
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.22
1 1.13
xG Accuracy: 69%
SC Freiburg W SC Freiburg W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC Koln W SC Freiburg W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11242797

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result SC Freiburg W win · FC Koln W 0–1 SC Freiburg W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Frauen Bundesliga
  • Fixture: FC Koln W vs SC Freiburg W
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.1% · Draw 28.8% · Away 28.0%
  • xG (showing): FC Koln W 1.22 — SC Freiburg W 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.35)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 58.3% · Implied: 42.0% · Probability edge: +16.3 pts · Est. EV: +37.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Frauen Bundesliga Frauen Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bayern Munich W 5 5 0 0 15
2 Eintracht Frankfurt W 5 4 1 0 13
3 VfL Wolfsburg W 5 4 0 1 12
4 Werder Bremen W 5 3 1 1 10
5 FC Koln W 5 3 0 2 9
6 Bayer Leverkusen W 5 3 0 2 9
7 Stuttgart 5 2 2 1 8
8 SC Freiburg W 5 2 1 2 7
9 Hamburger SV W 5 1 2 2 5
10 RB Leipzig W 5 1 1 3 4
11 1899 Hoffenheim W 5 1 0 4 3
12 Union Berlin W 5 1 0 4 3
13 Nürnberg 5 0 2 3 2
14 Mainz 05 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bayern Munich W 5 18 6 +12 15
2 VfL Wolfsburg W 5 16 7 +9 12
3 Eintracht Frankfurt W 5 11 5 +6 13
4 FC Koln W 5 10 7 +3 9
5 Bayer Leverkusen W 5 9 7 +2 9
6 Werder Bremen W 5 8 5 +3 10
7 Hamburger SV W 5 8 6 +2 5
8 Stuttgart 5 8 8 0 8
9 Nürnberg 5 8 19 -11 2
10 SC Freiburg W 5 7 7 0 7
11 1899 Hoffenheim W 5 6 10 -4 3
12 RB Leipzig W 5 5 9 -4 4
13 Union Berlin W 5 4 11 -7 3
14 Mainz 05 5 3 14 -11 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bayern Munich W 5 3.8 0.9 +2.9 15
2 Union Berlin W 5 0.8 1.0 -0.2 3
3 Mainz 05 5 0.2 2.7 -2.5 0
4 Eintracht Frankfurt W 5 — — — 13
5 VfL Wolfsburg W 5 — — — 12
6 Werder Bremen W 5 — — — 10
7 FC Koln W 5 — — — 9
8 Bayer Leverkusen W 5 — — — 9
9 Stuttgart 5 — — — 8
10 SC Freiburg W 5 — — — 7
11 Hamburger SV W 5 — — — 5
12 RB Leipzig W 5 — — — 4
13 1899 Hoffenheim W 5 — — — 3
14 Nürnberg 5 — — — 2