Bayer Leverkusen W vs Werder Bremen W Statistics & Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen W

Oct 02, 2026 - 16:30

3 1.22

2 1.13

xG Accuracy: 48%

Werder Bremen W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Bayer Leverkusen W Bayer Leverkusen W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 01:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10973508

Closing Odds 1.7

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Bayer Leverkusen W win · Bayer Leverkusen W 3–2 Werder Bremen W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Werder Bremen W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 19.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Bayer Leverkusen W (1X2)	41.9	53.8	-12.0
Draw (1X2)	28.9	23.6	+5.3
Werder Bremen W (1X2)	29.2	22.6	+6.7
Over 2.5 goals	41.7	61.6	-19.9
Under 2.5 goals	58.3	38.4	+19.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 58.3% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 38.4%. The difference — about 19.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Bayer Leverkusen W (1X2)	1.7	1.7
Draw (1X2)	3.88	3.88
Werder Bremen W (1X2)	4.05	4.05
Over 2.5 goals	1.51	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	2.42	2.42

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Frauen Bundesliga
Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen W vs Werder Bremen W
Kickoff: 2026-10-02 16:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 28.9% · Away 29.2%
xG (showing): Bayer Leverkusen W 1.22 — Werder Bremen W 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.35)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 58.3% · Implied: 39.4% · Probability edge: +18.9 pts · Est. EV: +43.4%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Frauen Bundesliga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	5	5	0	0	15
2	Eintracht Frankfurt W	5	4	1	0	13
3	VfL Wolfsburg W	5	4	0	1	12
4	Werder Bremen W	5	3	1	1	10
5	FC Koln W	5	3	0	2	9
6	Bayer Leverkusen W	5	3	0	2	9
7	Stuttgart	5	2	2	1	8
8	SC Freiburg W	5	2	1	2	7
9	Hamburger SV W	5	1	2	2	5
10	RB Leipzig W	5	1	1	3	4
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	5	1	0	4	3
12	Union Berlin W	5	1	0	4	3
13	Nürnberg	5	0	2	3	2
14	Mainz 05	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	5	18	6	+12	15
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	5	16	7	+9	12
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	5	11	5	+6	13
4	FC Koln W	5	10	7	+3	9
5	Bayer Leverkusen W	5	9	7	+2	9
6	Werder Bremen W	5	8	5	+3	10
7	Hamburger SV W	5	8	6	+2	5
8	Stuttgart	5	8	8	0	8
9	Nürnberg	5	8	19	-11	2
10	SC Freiburg W	5	7	7	0	7
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	5	6	10	-4	3
12	RB Leipzig W	5	5	9	-4	4
13	Union Berlin W	5	4	11	-7	3
14	Mainz 05	5	3	14	-11	0

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	5	3.8	0.9	+2.9	15
2	Union Berlin W	5	0.8	1.0	-0.2	3
3	Mainz 05	5	0.2	2.7	-2.5	0
4	Eintracht Frankfurt W	5	—	—	—	13
5	VfL Wolfsburg W	5	—	—	—	12
6	Werder Bremen W	5	—	—	—	10
7	FC Koln W	5	—	—	—	9
8	Bayer Leverkusen W	5	—	—	—	9
9	Stuttgart	5	—	—	—	8
10	SC Freiburg W	5	—	—	—	7
11	Hamburger SV W	5	—	—	—	5
12	RB Leipzig W	5	—	—	—	4
13	1899 Hoffenheim W	5	—	—	—	3
14	Nürnberg	5	—	—	—	2