Bayern Munich W vs FC Koln W Statistics & Analysis

Bayern Munich W

Sep 19, 2026 - 12:00

5 1.08

2 0.72

xG Accuracy: 24%

FC Koln W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Bayern Munich W Bayern Munich W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 5-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8666874

Closing Odds 1.13

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Bayern Munich W win · Bayern Munich W 5–2 FC Koln W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), FC Koln W (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 24.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Bayern Munich W (1X2)	42.0	81.5	-39.5
Draw (1X2)	35.5	11.2	+24.2
FC Koln W (1X2)	22.5	7.3	+15.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.5% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 11.2%. The difference — about 24.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Bayern Munich W (1X2)	1.13	1.13
Draw (1X2)	8.22	8.22
FC Koln W (1X2)	12.66	12.66

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Bayern Munich W; market prices Bayern Munich W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Bayern Munich W 1.08 xG vs FC Koln W 0.72 → Bayern Munich W 42.0%
Market: Bayern Munich W ~81.5% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Frauen Bundesliga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	5	5	0	0	15
2	Eintracht Frankfurt W	5	4	1	0	13
3	VfL Wolfsburg W	5	4	0	1	12
4	Werder Bremen W	5	3	1	1	10
5	FC Koln W	5	3	0	2	9
6	Bayer Leverkusen W	5	3	0	2	9
7	Stuttgart	5	2	2	1	8
8	SC Freiburg W	5	2	1	2	7
9	Hamburger SV W	5	1	2	2	5
10	RB Leipzig W	5	1	1	3	4
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	5	1	0	4	3
12	Union Berlin W	5	1	0	4	3
13	Nürnberg	5	0	2	3	2
14	Mainz 05	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	5	18	6	+12	15
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	5	16	7	+9	12
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	5	11	5	+6	13
4	FC Koln W	5	10	7	+3	9
5	Bayer Leverkusen W	5	9	7	+2	9
6	Werder Bremen W	5	8	5	+3	10
7	Hamburger SV W	5	8	6	+2	5
8	Stuttgart	5	8	8	0	8
9	Nürnberg	5	8	19	-11	2
10	SC Freiburg W	5	7	7	0	7
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	5	6	10	-4	3
12	RB Leipzig W	5	5	9	-4	4
13	Union Berlin W	5	4	11	-7	3
14	Mainz 05	5	3	14	-11	0

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	5	3.8	0.9	+2.9	15
2	Union Berlin W	5	0.8	1.0	-0.2	3
3	Mainz 05	5	0.2	2.7	-2.5	0
4	Eintracht Frankfurt W	5	—	—	—	13
5	VfL Wolfsburg W	5	—	—	—	12
6	Werder Bremen W	5	—	—	—	10
7	FC Koln W	5	—	—	—	9
8	Bayer Leverkusen W	5	—	—	—	9
9	Stuttgart	5	—	—	—	8
10	SC Freiburg W	5	—	—	—	7
11	Hamburger SV W	5	—	—	—	5
12	RB Leipzig W	5	—	—	—	4
13	1899 Hoffenheim W	5	—	—	—	3
14	Nürnberg	5	—	—	—	2