SC Freiburg W vs Union Berlin W Statistics & Analysis

SC Freiburg W

Aug 29, 2026 - 10:00

1 0.86

0 0.94

xG Accuracy: 74%

Union Berlin W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 draw SC Freiburg W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5123545

Closing Odds 3.63

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result SC Freiburg W win · SC Freiburg W 1–0 Union Berlin W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 33.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
SC Freiburg W (1X2)	29.7	38.2	-8.6
Draw (1X2)	36.4	25.3	+11.1
Union Berlin W (1X2)	34.0	36.5	-2.5
Over 2.5 goals	26.9	60.0	-33.1
Under 2.5 goals	73.1	40.0	+33.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 73.1% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.0%. The difference — about 33.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
SC Freiburg W (1X2)	2.4	2.4
Draw (1X2)	3.63	3.63
Union Berlin W (1X2)	2.51	2.51
Over 2.5 goals	1.55	1.55
Under 2.5 goals	2.33	2.33

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Frauen Bundesliga
Fixture: SC Freiburg W vs Union Berlin W
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 10:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.7% · Draw 36.4% · Away 34.0%
xG (showing): SC Freiburg W 0.86 — Union Berlin W 0.94 (total xG ≈ 1.8)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 73.1% · Implied: 40.7% · Probability edge: +32.4 pts · Est. EV: +71.8%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Frauen Bundesliga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	5	5	0	0	15
2	Eintracht Frankfurt W	5	4	1	0	13
3	VfL Wolfsburg W	5	4	0	1	12
4	Werder Bremen W	5	3	1	1	10
5	FC Koln W	5	3	0	2	9
6	Bayer Leverkusen W	5	3	0	2	9
7	Stuttgart	5	2	2	1	8
8	SC Freiburg W	5	2	1	2	7
9	Hamburger SV W	5	1	2	2	5
10	RB Leipzig W	5	1	1	3	4
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	5	1	0	4	3
12	Union Berlin W	5	1	0	4	3
13	Nürnberg	5	0	2	3	2
14	Mainz 05	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	5	18	6	+12	15
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	5	16	7	+9	12
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	5	11	5	+6	13
4	FC Koln W	5	10	7	+3	9
5	Bayer Leverkusen W	5	9	7	+2	9
6	Werder Bremen W	5	8	5	+3	10
7	Hamburger SV W	5	8	6	+2	5
8	Stuttgart	5	8	8	0	8
9	Nürnberg	5	8	19	-11	2
10	SC Freiburg W	5	7	7	0	7
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	5	6	10	-4	3
12	RB Leipzig W	5	5	9	-4	4
13	Union Berlin W	5	4	11	-7	3
14	Mainz 05	5	3	14	-11	0

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	5	3.8	0.9	+2.9	15
2	Union Berlin W	5	0.8	1.0	-0.2	3
3	Mainz 05	5	0.2	2.7	-2.5	0
4	Eintracht Frankfurt W	5	—	—	—	13
5	VfL Wolfsburg W	5	—	—	—	12
6	Werder Bremen W	5	—	—	—	10
7	FC Koln W	5	—	—	—	9
8	Bayer Leverkusen W	5	—	—	—	9
9	Stuttgart	5	—	—	—	8
10	SC Freiburg W	5	—	—	—	7
11	Hamburger SV W	5	—	—	—	5
12	RB Leipzig W	5	—	—	—	4
13	1899 Hoffenheim W	5	—	—	—	3
14	Nürnberg	5	—	—	—	2