Bayer Leverkusen W vs VfL Wolfsburg W Statistics & Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen W

Aug 30, 2026 - 14:00

1 0.85

2 0.95

xG Accuracy: 72%

VfL Wolfsburg W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 VfL Wolfsburg W VfL Wolfsburg W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5296040

Closing Odds 1.97

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result VfL Wolfsburg W win · Bayer Leverkusen W 1–2 VfL Wolfsburg W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Bayer Leverkusen W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 32.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Bayer Leverkusen W (1X2)	29.2	28.1	+1.2
Draw (1X2)	33.0	25.4	+7.6
VfL Wolfsburg W (1X2)	37.7	46.5	-8.7
Over 2.5 goals	26.9	59.2	-32.3
Under 2.5 goals	73.1	40.8	+32.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 73.1% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.8%. The difference — about 32.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Bayer Leverkusen W (1X2)	3.26	3.26
Draw (1X2)	3.6	3.6
VfL Wolfsburg W (1X2)	1.97	1.97
Over 2.5 goals	1.57	1.57
Under 2.5 goals	2.28	2.28

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Frauen Bundesliga
Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen W vs VfL Wolfsburg W
Kickoff: 2026-08-30 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.2% · Draw 33.0% · Away 37.7%
xG (showing): Bayer Leverkusen W 0.85 — VfL Wolfsburg W 0.95 (total xG ≈ 1.8)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 73.1% · Implied: 41.4% · Probability edge: +31.7 pts · Est. EV: +68.1%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Frauen Bundesliga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	5	5	0	0	15
2	Eintracht Frankfurt W	5	4	1	0	13
3	VfL Wolfsburg W	5	4	0	1	12
4	Werder Bremen W	5	3	1	1	10
5	FC Koln W	5	3	0	2	9
6	Bayer Leverkusen W	5	3	0	2	9
7	Stuttgart	5	2	2	1	8
8	SC Freiburg W	5	2	1	2	7
9	Hamburger SV W	5	1	2	2	5
10	RB Leipzig W	5	1	1	3	4
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	5	1	0	4	3
12	Union Berlin W	5	1	0	4	3
13	Nürnberg	5	0	2	3	2
14	Mainz 05	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	5	18	6	+12	15
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	5	16	7	+9	12
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	5	11	5	+6	13
4	FC Koln W	5	10	7	+3	9
5	Bayer Leverkusen W	5	9	7	+2	9
6	Werder Bremen W	5	8	5	+3	10
7	Hamburger SV W	5	8	6	+2	5
8	Stuttgart	5	8	8	0	8
9	Nürnberg	5	8	19	-11	2
10	SC Freiburg W	5	7	7	0	7
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	5	6	10	-4	3
12	RB Leipzig W	5	5	9	-4	4
13	Union Berlin W	5	4	11	-7	3
14	Mainz 05	5	3	14	-11	0

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	5	3.8	0.9	+2.9	15
2	Union Berlin W	5	0.8	1.0	-0.2	3
3	Mainz 05	5	0.2	2.7	-2.5	0
4	Eintracht Frankfurt W	5	—	—	—	13
5	VfL Wolfsburg W	5	—	—	—	12
6	Werder Bremen W	5	—	—	—	10
7	FC Koln W	5	—	—	—	9
8	Bayer Leverkusen W	5	—	—	—	9
9	Stuttgart	5	—	—	—	8
10	SC Freiburg W	5	—	—	—	7
11	Hamburger SV W	5	—	—	—	5
12	RB Leipzig W	5	—	—	—	4
13	1899 Hoffenheim W	5	—	—	—	3
14	Nürnberg	5	—	—	—	2