Statistics / Football / Germany. Frauen Bundesliga / Hamburger SV W vs SC Freiburg W

Hamburger SV W vs SC Freiburg W Statistics & Analysis

Hamburger SV W Hamburger SV W
Aug 23, 2026 - 16:30
1 1.26
1 1.34
xG Accuracy: 85%
SC Freiburg W SC Freiburg W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SC Freiburg W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4369233

Closing Odds 2.02
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Hamburger SV W 1–1 SC Freiburg W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Hamburger SV W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 8.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Hamburger SV W (1X2) 33.4 28.9 +4.5
Draw (1X2) 29.6 25.9 +3.8
SC Freiburg W (1X2) 37.0 45.3 -8.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 57.0 -8.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 43.0 +8.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 43.0%. The difference — about 8.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Hamburger SV W (1X2) 3.17 3.17 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.54 3.54 0.0
SC Freiburg W (1X2) 2.02 2.02 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.65 1.65 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.19 2.19 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Frauen Bundesliga
  • Fixture: Hamburger SV W vs SC Freiburg W
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Hamburger SV W 1.26 — SC Freiburg W 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.1% · Probability edge: +8.7 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Frauen Bundesliga Frauen Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bayern Munich W 5 5 0 0 15
2 Eintracht Frankfurt W 5 4 1 0 13
3 VfL Wolfsburg W 5 4 0 1 12
4 Werder Bremen W 5 3 1 1 10
5 FC Koln W 5 3 0 2 9
6 Bayer Leverkusen W 5 3 0 2 9
7 Stuttgart 5 2 2 1 8
8 SC Freiburg W 5 2 1 2 7
9 Hamburger SV W 5 1 2 2 5
10 RB Leipzig W 5 1 1 3 4
11 1899 Hoffenheim W 5 1 0 4 3
12 Union Berlin W 5 1 0 4 3
13 Nürnberg 5 0 2 3 2
14 Mainz 05 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bayern Munich W 5 18 6 +12 15
2 VfL Wolfsburg W 5 16 7 +9 12
3 Eintracht Frankfurt W 5 11 5 +6 13
4 FC Koln W 5 10 7 +3 9
5 Bayer Leverkusen W 5 9 7 +2 9
6 Werder Bremen W 5 8 5 +3 10
7 Hamburger SV W 5 8 6 +2 5
8 Stuttgart 5 8 8 0 8
9 Nürnberg 5 8 19 -11 2
10 SC Freiburg W 5 7 7 0 7
11 1899 Hoffenheim W 5 6 10 -4 3
12 RB Leipzig W 5 5 9 -4 4
13 Union Berlin W 5 4 11 -7 3
14 Mainz 05 5 3 14 -11 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bayern Munich W 5 3.8 0.9 +2.9 15
2 Union Berlin W 5 0.8 1.0 -0.2 3
3 Mainz 05 5 0.2 2.7 -2.5 0
4 Eintracht Frankfurt W 5 — — — 13
5 VfL Wolfsburg W 5 — — — 12
6 Werder Bremen W 5 — — — 10
7 FC Koln W 5 — — — 9
8 Bayer Leverkusen W 5 — — — 9
9 Stuttgart 5 — — — 8
10 SC Freiburg W 5 — — — 7
11 Hamburger SV W 5 — — — 5
12 RB Leipzig W 5 — — — 4
13 1899 Hoffenheim W 5 — — — 3
14 Nürnberg 5 — — — 2
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