Karbon Cherkasy vs Penuel Statistics & Analysis

Karbon Cherkasy

Aug 01, 2026 - 11:00

0 1.47

1 1.13

xG Accuracy: 64%

Penuel

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Karbon Cherkasy Penuel ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 02:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1792592

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Penuel win · Karbon Cherkasy 0–1 Penuel

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Druha Liga
Fixture: Karbon Cherkasy vs Penuel
Kickoff: 2026-08-01 11:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.5%
xG (showing): Karbon Cherkasy 1.47 — Penuel 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Druha Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Bratslav Vinnytsia	7	5	2	0	17
2	Nyva Vinnytsya	7	4	2	1	14
3	Dnister Zalishchyky	8	4	2	2	14
4	Podillya Khmelnytskyi	7	4	1	2	13
5	Nyva Ternopil II	7	3	0	4	9
6	Vilkhivtsi	7	2	2	3	8
7	Skala 1911 Stryi	7	2	1	4	7
8	Dinaz Vyshhorod	7	0	4	3	4
9	Ruh Lviv	7	1	0	6	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bratslav Vinnytsia	7	17	5	+12	17
2	Dnister Zalishchyky	8	16	13	+3	14
3	Podillya Khmelnytskyi	7	14	12	+2	13
4	Nyva Vinnytsya	7	12	6	+6	14
5	Ruh Lviv	7	11	13	-2	3
6	Dinaz Vyshhorod	7	10	17	-7	4
7	Vilkhivtsi	7	9	12	-3	8
8	Nyva Ternopil II	7	7	13	-6	9
9	Skala 1911 Stryi	7	6	11	-5	7