Statistics / Football / Honduras. Liga Nacional / Real Espana vs Génesis

Real Espana vs Génesis Statistics & Analysis

Real Espana Real Espana
Aug 09, 2026 - 01:30
2 1.39
0 1.21
xG Accuracy: 61%
Génesis Génesis
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Real Espana Real Espana ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 00:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2959038

Closing Odds 5.99
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Real Espana win · Real Espana 2–0 Génesis
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.76 percentage points on Génesis (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Génesis (1X2) by about 16.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Real Espana (1X2) 39.5 54.8 -15.3
Draw (1X2) 29.5 30.2 -0.7
Génesis (1X2) 31.0 15.0 +16.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 49.6 -1.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 50.4 +1.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.0% on Génesis (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 15.0%. The difference — about 16.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Real Espana (1X2) 1.61 1.64 -0.3
Draw (1X2) 2.81 2.98 -1.4
Génesis (1X2) 6.7 5.99 +1.8
Over 2.5 goals 1.89 1.88 +0.5
Under 2.5 goals 1.82 1.85 -0.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga Nacional
  • Fixture: Real Espana vs Génesis
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 01:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Real Espana 1.39 — Génesis 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga Nacional Liga Nacional — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Espana 8 5 3 0 18
2 CD Olimpia 8 5 2 1 17
3 CD Marathon 8 5 2 1 17
4 CD Motagua 8 4 1 3 13
5 Génesis 8 3 2 3 11
6 Olancho 8 2 5 1 11
7 Estrella Roja 8 2 3 3 9
8 Atletico Independiente 8 2 3 3 9
9 Lobos Upnfm 8 2 2 4 8
10 Atlético Choloma 8 2 1 5 7
11 Juticalpa 8 2 0 6 6
12 Platense FC 8 1 2 5 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CD Olimpia 8 19 7 +12 17
2 CD Marathon 8 14 6 +8 17
3 Real Espana 8 13 4 +9 18
4 Estrella Roja 8 13 16 -3 9
5 CD Motagua 8 11 8 +3 13
6 Génesis 8 10 6 +4 11
7 Juticalpa 8 8 19 -11 6
8 Atletico Independiente 8 7 11 -4 9
9 Lobos Upnfm 8 7 12 -5 8
10 Olancho 8 6 5 +1 11
11 Atlético Choloma 8 6 8 -2 7
12 Platense FC 8 6 18 -12 5