Statistics / Football / Honduras. Liga Nacional / CD Marathon vs Atletico Independiente

CD Marathon vs Atletico Independiente Statistics & Analysis

CD Marathon CD Marathon
Aug 04, 2026 - 01:00
1 1.41
0 1.19
xG Accuracy: 64%
⚽
Atletico Independiente
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 CD Marathon CD Marathon ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2359793

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result CD Marathon win · CD Marathon 1–0 Atletico Independiente
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga Nacional
  • Fixture: CD Marathon vs Atletico Independiente
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-04 01:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): CD Marathon 1.41 — Atletico Independiente 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Nacional Liga Nacional — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Espana 8 5 3 0 18
2 CD Olimpia 8 5 2 1 17
3 CD Marathon 8 5 2 1 17
4 CD Motagua 8 4 1 3 13
5 Génesis 8 3 2 3 11
6 Olancho 8 2 5 1 11
7 Estrella Roja 8 2 3 3 9
8 Atletico Independiente 8 2 3 3 9
9 Lobos Upnfm 8 2 2 4 8
10 Atlético Choloma 8 2 1 5 7
11 Juticalpa 8 2 0 6 6
12 Platense FC 8 1 2 5 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CD Olimpia 8 19 7 +12 17
2 CD Marathon 8 14 6 +8 17
3 Real Espana 8 13 4 +9 18
4 Estrella Roja 8 13 16 -3 9
5 CD Motagua 8 11 8 +3 13
6 Génesis 8 10 6 +4 11
7 Juticalpa 8 8 19 -11 6
8 Atletico Independiente 8 7 11 -4 9
9 Lobos Upnfm 8 7 12 -5 8
10 Olancho 8 6 5 +1 11
11 Atlético Choloma 8 6 8 -2 7
12 Platense FC 8 6 18 -12 5