Statistics / Football / Honduras. Liga Nacional / CD Olimpia vs Lobos Upnfm

CD Olimpia vs Lobos Upnfm Statistics & Analysis

CD Olimpia CD Olimpia
Aug 03, 2026 - 01:30
2 1.39
0 1.21
xG Accuracy: 61%
Lobos Upnfm Lobos Upnfm
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 CD Olimpia CD Olimpia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 00:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1940017

Closing Odds 1.24
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result CD Olimpia win · CD Olimpia 2–0 Lobos Upnfm
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.2 percentage points on CD Olimpia (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Lobos Upnfm (1X2) by about 20.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
CD Olimpia (1X2) 39.5 72.2 -32.6
Draw (1X2) 29.5 17.3 +12.1
Lobos Upnfm (1X2) 31.0 10.5 +20.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 60.0 -11.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 40.0 +11.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.0% on Lobos Upnfm (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 10.5%. The difference — about 20.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
CD Olimpia (1X2) 1.25 1.24 +1.2
Draw (1X2) 4.91 5.16 -0.7
Lobos Upnfm (1X2) 8.07 8.51 -0.5
Over 2.5 goals 1.53 1.53 +0.2
Under 2.5 goals 2.27 2.29 -0.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours CD Olimpia; market prices CD Olimpia instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: CD Olimpia 1.39 xG vs Lobos Upnfm 1.21 → CD Olimpia 39.5%
  • Market: CD Olimpia ~72.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Nacional Liga Nacional — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Espana 8 5 3 0 18
2 CD Olimpia 8 5 2 1 17
3 CD Marathon 8 5 2 1 17
4 CD Motagua 8 4 1 3 13
5 Génesis 8 3 2 3 11
6 Olancho 8 2 5 1 11
7 Estrella Roja 8 2 3 3 9
8 Atletico Independiente 8 2 3 3 9
9 Lobos Upnfm 8 2 2 4 8
10 Atlético Choloma 8 2 1 5 7
11 Juticalpa 8 2 0 6 6
12 Platense FC 8 1 2 5 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CD Olimpia 8 19 7 +12 17
2 CD Marathon 8 14 6 +8 17
3 Real Espana 8 13 4 +9 18
4 Estrella Roja 8 13 16 -3 9
5 CD Motagua 8 11 8 +3 13
6 Génesis 8 10 6 +4 11
7 Juticalpa 8 8 19 -11 6
8 Atletico Independiente 8 7 11 -4 9
9 Lobos Upnfm 8 7 12 -5 8
10 Olancho 8 6 5 +1 11
11 Atlético Choloma 8 6 8 -2 7
12 Platense FC 8 6 18 -12 5