Statistics / Football / Honduras. Liga Nacional / Platense FC vs Real Espana

Platense FC vs Real Espana Statistics & Analysis

Platense FC Platense FC
Aug 01, 2026 - 01:00
0 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 43%
Real Espana Real Espana
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Platense FC Real Espana ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 00:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1781275

Closing Odds 3.54
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Real Espana win · Platense FC 0–3 Real Espana
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.84 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Platense FC (1X2) by about 10.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Platense FC (1X2) 36.1 25.4 +10.7
Draw (1X2) 29.7 29.8 -0.1
Real Espana (1X2) 34.2 44.8 -10.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 46.8 +1.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 53.2 -1.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Platense FC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.4%. The difference — about 10.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Platense FC (1X2) 3.58 3.54 +0.6
Draw (1X2) 2.81 3.02 -1.8
Real Espana (1X2) 2.04 2.01 +1.2
Over 2.5 goals 2.09 2.0 +2.8
Under 2.5 goals 1.64 1.76 -2.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga Nacional
  • Fixture: Platense FC vs Real Espana
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 01:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Platense FC 1.32 — Real Espana 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Nacional Liga Nacional — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Espana 8 5 3 0 18
2 CD Olimpia 8 5 2 1 17
3 CD Marathon 8 5 2 1 17
4 CD Motagua 8 4 1 3 13
5 Génesis 8 3 2 3 11
6 Olancho 8 2 5 1 11
7 Estrella Roja 8 2 3 3 9
8 Atletico Independiente 8 2 3 3 9
9 Lobos Upnfm 8 2 2 4 8
10 Atlético Choloma 8 2 1 5 7
11 Juticalpa 8 2 0 6 6
12 Platense FC 8 1 2 5 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CD Olimpia 8 19 7 +12 17
2 CD Marathon 8 14 6 +8 17
3 Real Espana 8 13 4 +9 18
4 Estrella Roja 8 13 16 -3 9
5 CD Motagua 8 11 8 +3 13
6 Génesis 8 10 6 +4 11
7 Juticalpa 8 8 19 -11 6
8 Atletico Independiente 8 7 11 -4 9
9 Lobos Upnfm 8 7 12 -5 8
10 Olancho 8 6 5 +1 11
11 Atlético Choloma 8 6 8 -2 7
12 Platense FC 8 6 18 -12 5